As the clock keeps ticking toward the 2013 Chase, the time has arrived for speculations on who will be competing for the title and who will be on the outside looking in when the Chase begins at Chicagoland Speedway in September.

Chase Tracker is making its second annual appearance to keep fans informed leading up to, and throughout the heated competition for a Sprint Cup trophy.  Chase Tracker will give a weekly summary including those drivers chasing the two coveted Wild Card spots. Unlike most fan speculations, which are typically based on gut feel and emotion for particular drivers, Chase Tracker will look at current statistics for analysis. This will give fans a more balanced view of whom to watch as the competition heats up – Watkins Glen through Richmond and beyond.

In addition to the current point standings, Chase Tracker will look at the past five-race average finish – Kentucky through Pocono – as the basis of this particular analysis.

Wild Card Contenders

Two Wild Card spots are up for grabs, and the next five races are critical for those contending.  Right now those two spots are held by Tony Stewart and Martin Truex Jr., both outside the top-ten in point standings and with one win each.

But this past Monday night has put Stewart’s Wild Card spot into a precarious position with five more races before the Chase begins. Stewart had a Sprint car accident Monday night, breaking his right leg. At this point, it seems, at best, it will be a few races before Stewart will return to his Sprint Cup car to keep his contention for the Chase in tact. Right now Stewart is 11th in points, with the first Wild Card and Martin Truex Jr holds the second Wild Card with his one win. The only other contender in the top-20 with a win, is Ryan Newman.  Barring any other Wild Card contenders gaining a win in the next five races, Newman is in the best place to take over a Wild Card spot, while Stewart’s place slides during his absence.

The next top contenders for the Wild Card – those without a win – include last year’s champion, Brad Keselowski, now ranked in 12th place; and then Kurt Busch in 13th place.

Keeping in mind, that Newman is 15th in the point standings, and the second Wild Card, is now held by Martin Truex Jr in 14th place – a win this weekend by Keselowski or Busch would allow them to take over a Wild Card spot. Kurt Busch enjoys the road courses, so he’s definitely a driver to watch this weekend.

Other drivers in the top-20 looking for a win this weekend and going for a Wild Card include, Jamie, McMurray, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Paul Menard and Jeff Burton. Of these five drivers, the one with the best average finish in the last five races is Jamie McMurray. McMurray ranks within the top-five for average finish of all drivers in the last five races, making him another driver for fans to keep their eyes on this weekend.

Stars beginning to fade

Unfortunately, there are those drivers who’s stars are beginning to fade at the wrong time, leading into the Chase. One such driver is Greg Biffle. Although Biffle had a top-ten at Pocono, his last five-race average ranks 17th among all drivers at  19.8. That’s hardly Chase worthy, although Biffle is now ranked tenth in the point standings.  He needs to super-charge his average finish to have any chance at contending for a title this year; and if not, he’ll put himself in jeopardy of being on the outside of the top-ten, working hard to keep a Wild Card. The next five races are critical for Biffle and his team.

Another driver trending in the wrong direction, is Carl Edwards. Although Edwards is now ranked third in points, his last five-race average finish ranks 13th of all drivers at 16.40.  Although, it’s unlikely that Edwards will drop out of the top-ten in points – unless the wheels completely fall off his team efforts – that trend will not lead to a title for Edwards this season. Only time will tell, if Edwards and his team can reverse his current trend.

Surprisingly, just ahead of Edwards in the last five race average finish ranking, is Matt Kenseth in 12th. Kenseth is now ranked 7th in the point standings but with re-seeding at Chicagoland, and with four wins, Kenseth is set to take second-place behind the leader Jimmie Johnson. In his past five races, Kenseth has one win, one top-five and one top-ten; but he also has two finishes of 22nd and 33rd.  When the Chase begins, those truly contending for the title will need consistent top-five finishes, so Kenseth needs to lose the bad days as much as possible from here on out.

Although, not as far back in the last five race average finish , Kevin Harvick, at 11.2, ranks seventh among all drivers. With two wins this season, Harvick is set to take the third spot when the Chase begins.  But, he’ll really need to improve his most recent performance of 19th at Indy and 17th at Pocono to leverage his place in the Chase to contend for the title.

Clint Bowyer is now second in the point standings with a worst finish of 20th at Indianapolis in the last five races.  Bowyer finished third and fourth at Kentucky and Daytona, but with a 13th at Loudon, a 14th at Pocono, and no wins this season, he’s vulnerable to a much lower seeding when the Chase begins. Bowyer will need to step up his game plan coming into the Chase and a win or two will give him the boost he needs to seriously contend with the best.

Stars on the Rise

Kasey Kahne is first on this list with a third-place finish at Indy and first at Pocono. His 32nd place finish at Daytona is the only blemish in the last five races.  In the last two races, Kahne has gone from Chasing a Wild Card to putting himself at eighth in the point standings and is now chasing a Sprint Cup Trophy at Homestead.  Will Kahne’s star continue to rise in the next five races? He’s certainly one to watch!

Jeff Gordon, similar to Kahne, has two consecutive finishes that are putting him in a good place for the Chase. His seventh at Indy and second at Pocono have moved Gordon from contending for a Wild Card to being in the Chase at ninth in the point standings. Gordon will need to find top-five consistency in the next five races to improve his ‘drive for five’ this season.

The Brightest Stars

Of course, no one will contest that so far, Jimmie Johnson‘s star is shining the brightest in the Race to the Chase.  Johnson has the highest five-race average finish at 6.2 and his worst finish comes in at 13th in Pocono. Johnson’s first place ranking and four wins, put him at the top to contend for his sixth championship. But there are two other drivers that are on Johnson’s heels as they chase the five-time champion this season.

Kyle Busch has the best chance of bursting Johnson’s six-time bubble with a five-race average finish of 7.40. Interestingly, Busch’s worst finish in the last five races is 12th at Daytona. Busch wants nothing more than a Sprint Cup trophy, so if he can further improve his momentum heading into the Chase, he’ll give Jimmie Johnson his toughest competition. Busch’s two wins give him an edge over the next Chase contender.

NASCAR’s most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr, is also right in the mix to contend for his first championship. Earnhardt’s five-race average finish comes in at 9.0 – third of all drivers – with a worst finish of 14th at Pocono. Similar to Kyle Busch, Earnhardt will need to look for improvement with top-fives, but it will be multiple wins that will rattle Jimmie Johnson’s cage.  Can he do it?

Tune in to ESPN at 1pm ET Sunday, August 11th  for road course racing at Watkins Glen, then watch for our next installment of Chase Tracker next week!