Sprint Cup Series Preview Cheez-it 355 at The Glen

Brad Keselowski leads Marcos Ambrose as both cars skid through the grass in the backstretch chicane on the final lap of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series' Finger Lakes 355 August 2012  Photo - John Harrelson/Getty Images

Brad Keselowski leads Marcos Ambrose as both cars skid through the grass in the backstretch chicane on the last lap of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series‘ Finger Lakes 355 August 2012
Photo – John Harrelson/Getty Images

Sprint Cup Series drivers return to Watkins Glen International, Sunday, August 11th for the Cheez-it 355 with television coverage beginning at 12pm ET on ESPN. Radio coverage is on MRN Sirius XM channel 90. Drivers will race 220.5-miles – 90 laps, starting at 1pm ET.

Jeff Gordon is building momentum with five races remaining in the Race to the Chase. Remember, it was just a year ago when the four-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion didn’t clinch a berth in the Chase until the last race of the regular season at Richmond.

Gordon, ranked 21st in the standings earlier this year, is now in ninth- place with his runner-up finish to teammate Kasey Kahne at Pocono Raceway. Gordon’s top-ten place in the point standings is tenuous with just 13-points between eight (Kahne) and 10th (Greg Biffle).

Battling from behind, Gordon’s approach is a points-first strategy, which is paying dividends so far. But Gordon needs a victory with his competitors battling for seeding places and even Wild Card status.

Watkins Glen is a perfect track for Gordon’s quest for the fifth series championship of his career and it would be no surprise to see him celebrating his 87th Sprint Cup victory this weekend. Gordon is Sprint Cup’s all-time road racing winner with nine wins overall. Four of those wins are at The Glen’s seven-turn, 2.45-mile layout. From 1997-99, Gordon won three consecutive times at the upstate New York track and three of his championship seasons feature a Watkins Glen victory. Gordon’s recent hot streak is reminiscent of his past dominance in the sport, but will it produce a return to road course success?

Keep in mind that Gordon’s road racing skills haven’t declined, but over the years, the skills of his rivals have closed the performance gap.

“I think the competition has gotten so much stronger at the road courses than it used to be,” Gordon said in Sunday’s post race interviews. “Where I used to go to the road courses feeling confident that we were going to gain points and have a shot at winning, these days I’ve got to fight hard to get a top-ten.”

“But I feel good about our road course program this year. We finished good at Sonoma (second). I felt we learned a lot at the end of the second half of the race at Watkins Glen last year. We kind of more did a test more for Watkins Glen than we did for Sonoma prior to Sonoma, so I’m hoping that pays off.”

Gordon would just as soon control his own destiny going to the regular season finale next month at Richmond International Raceway – and not depend upon what another driver did or didn’t do, as he did in 2012. He’s won multiple races at the five remaining tracks comprising the Race to the Chase.

“They’re just good tracks for us and if we can start to put the execution together with the performance, I feel like we have a shot at staying in the top-ten,” said Gordon. “The closer we get to Richmond the more aggressive we get. But I also think consistent top-fives would do it. I think that would get us in. But that’s a lot to ask for.”

But top-fives are exactly what is needed to compete with Gordon’s teammate and five-time champion, Jimmie Johnson. There’s only one driver in place to clinch a Chase berth at Watkins Glen and that’s Johnson, if he can leave the track with a 193-point lead over the 11th place driver. Right now, Johnson’s lead is 178-points over Tony Stewart, the 11th-place driver after Pocono.

Stewart is missing Sunday’s race, after breaking his right leg in a sprint car race on Monday night, and  Max Papis will take his seat in Sunday’s race. Last year’s champion, Brad Keselowski is 12th, 180- points behind the leader Jimmie Johnson – the only competitor to qualify for the Chase in all nine seasons.

A win at The Glen will guarantee Johnson at least a Wild Card entry into this year’s post season competition. Johnson already has four wins – along with Kenseth, but mathmatically – and officially – speaking, Kenseth cannot lock up a Wild Card spot just yet. Depending on the finishes of other competitors, there are other finishes that would give Johnson at least a Wild Card clinch at Watkins Glen.

While Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick, who rank second through fourth, seem to be ‘locks’ for a Chase appearances, each is several races away from an official clinch. Bowyer leads 11th by 101 points; Edwards has 94 points in hand and Harvick is 81 points ahead of 11th.  Harvick has two victories and Edwards one. Harvick won at The Glen in 2006, while Bowyer has yet to visit victory lane in 2013. Bowyer does have a road racing win at Sonoma in 2012 and he finished fourth in last year’s Cheez-it 355.

But there are other competitors to watch this weekend at The Glen. Remember last year’s event? Marcos Ambrose bested Brad Keselowski in a dramatic, on and off the race track slug fest on the last lap of last year’s Cheez-it 350, is an obvious favorite to win in Sunday’s race. The Australian has beaten Keselowski in successive seasons and would become just the third driver to win three consecutive Glen races. Denny Hamlin as the most recent winner of three straight at a specific track; in 2009-10 at Martinsville Speedway.

An Ambrose victory would likely qualify him for Chase Wild Card consideration, as he now sits 22nd and is only five-points out of the required top-20 ranking. But that may not be enough to give Ambrose a post-season berth with other one-time winners this season, Tony Stewart (11th), Martin Truex Jr (14th) and Ryan Newman (15th) all at least 75-points ahead of Ambrose – a huge gap to overcome with five races remaining.

Ambrose – and Juan Pablo Montoya, another Glen winner – would have to add an oval victory to their season stats, something neither of them has been able to do in their Sprint Cup careers.Ryan Newman has the easier route, just nine-points behind Truex after a victory and fourth-place finish in his past two starts.

Former series’ champions Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch stand oh-so-close to the top-ten – 12th and 13th, seven- and 11-points, outside the top-ten.  Keselowski would likely accept another second-place finish, while, Busch, in the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing machine, owns a premier series road racing victory at Sonoma Raceway in 2011 and would be the first driver from a single-car team to qualify for the Chase.

“I feel very confident now heading back there not to just have speed in qualifying but to have speed throughout the race,” said Busch, reflecting on last week’s Glen test. “It’s an important race. Sonoma is on the calendar in June and the middle of August is much more important.”

There is still yet another driver to keep an eye on at The Glen this weekend. Martin Truex Jr shocked the NASCAR world in June, winning at Sonoma Raceway to become the seventh different first-time road course winner in the last seven races at Sonoma. Another win, at another road course, would place Truex on a short list of road course sweepers. In terms of shock value, a Truex win at Watkins Glen would make Sonoma look ho-hum.

Since Sonoma and Watkins Glen became the only two road-course races on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule, only four drivers have swept the two races in the same season. One of those drivers did it twice. The list consists of some of the top road-course talents the sport has ever seen: Jeff Gordon (1998-99), Robby Gordon (2003), Tony Stewart (2005) and Kyle Busch (2008). That’s it.

Although Truex boast some solid statistics at Watkins Glen, pulling the road-course sweep would be a surprise. In seven starts, Truex has scored four top-ten finishes (two of those came in the last two races). He hasn’t led any laps at The Glen, but he has scored driver ratings over 100 in the last two Watkins Glen races. But more importantly, a sweep – or a strong finish – would solidify Truex’s standing in the Chase for the Sprint Cup title battle.

And finally, but certainly not least among Sprint Cup competitors, there’s Clint Bowyer.  It’s hard to fly under the radar at a race track – track type, at which you have won. But that’s exactly what Clint Bowyer has done at road courses.  Known more for his short-track prowess, Bowyer has strung together a brilliant list of finishes at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen over the last two seasons.

Only one driver has scored top-five finishes in the last three road course races. It’s not Tony Stewart. It’s not Jeff Gordon. Nor is it Marcos Ambrose or Juan Pablo Montoya. Only Bowyer has accomplished that feat, winning last year’s Sonoma race, finishing fourth at Watkins Glen last August, and fifth in June at Sonoma.

Only two other drivers have multiple top-fives at the two road courses since 2012 – and oddly enough, they’re also not the usually popular picks at road courses (Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch).

Though practically a lock to make the top-ten once the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup starts, Bowyer needs wins – and the vital bonus points that go along with making the top-ten. Once the Chase field is set, each Chase driver’s points will be reset to 2,000, with three bonus points added to the top-ten drivers for each win tallied during the first 26 races. Right now, Bowyer is one of the three winless drivers in the top-ten, along with Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon.

Owen Kelly will make his first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start this weekend at Watkins Glen, driving the No. 51 for Phoenix Racing. Kelly, an Australian with roots in V8 Supercars, has raced twice in the NASCAR Nationwide Series, scoring two top-fives at Road America.

AJ Allmendinger returns to the seat of the No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing car this weekend. In his two starts in the 47, Allmendinger has finished 19th (Michigan) and 22nd (Kentucky).

Danica Patrick will become the second female driver to start a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Watkins Glen, joining Patty Moise, who raced there in 1987-88 to finishes of 33rd and 30th.

Jimmie Johnson led 43 laps at Pocono, which left him eight laps short of 15,000 career laps led. When he hits the milestone, he’ll become the ninth driver to accomplish the feat.

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