This week’s Sprint Cup Chase Tracker after Bristol holds some interesting insight into the Race to the Chase with just one more race (Atlanta) before the series travels the Road to Richmond.
Bristol is a Wild Card race en route to qualifying to compete for the Sprint Cup championship trophy and interestingly, there are three previous champions on the outside still chasing a Wild Card ticket. An intriguing note, is that all three are winless this season.
It’s also worthy to note that last year at this time, the average-finish performance was at a higher level with eventual 2012 champion Brad Keselowski consistently running an average-finish in the top-five range. This year, with the new Gen 6 car, most are outside of top-ten performance, with only two drivers (neither is NASCAR’s five-time champion) at or slightly better than top-ten results since Kentucky. Reviewing the most recent five-races, there’s only one driver in the top-five average-finish range, and most will be amazed to discover which driver.
Similar to previous Chase Tracker analysis, this week’s review includes average-finish performance of top competitors from Kentucky through Bristol – Race to the Chase – as well as, the most recent five races from Indianapolis through Bristol. Also taken into consideration is the new point standings after all the action at Bristol.
Wild Card Contenders
With Kasey Kahne, once again, moving into the top-ten, there is yet another change about who now holds a provisional Wild Card. With a 35th-place finish at Bristol, Martin Truex Jr hangs on to his provisional Wild Card and sits 14th in the point standings with one win for the season. But as stated earlier, there are three past-champions ranked ahead of him – Keselowski (11th), Kurt Busch (12th) and Gordon (13th) – all looking to win this week at Atlanta or next week at Richmond. Truex, also needs a win, or at least top-five finishes in the next two races to hang on to his hopes of competing for the title.
15th ranked Ryan Newman, comes back again as a provisional Wild Card holder this week, after finishing at Bristol in 21st-place. Despite finishing outside the top-20, with a 10.6 five-race-average-finish, Newman surprisingly is third among all drivers, giving his fans some hope in competing for his first title. But for that hope to materialize, Newman will need better results over the next two races and perhaps… beyond.
Four-time champion, Jeff Gordon, now sits 13th in the point standings and without a win this season, he has no provisional ticket into the Chase. But his finish of seventh at Bristol is a light to keep this team focused on doing more at Atlanta and Richmond. Gordon’s Race to the Chase and five-race average-finishes are 13.88 (8th) and 13.8 (9th) and put him among the top-ten of his peers. Gordon raced his way to a Wild Card spot at Richmond last year, he’ll need to do the same this year to keep his “drive for five’ (championships) alive.
The remaining Wild Card contenders (ranked 16 – 20) include, Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, Tony Stewart (out of competition) and Jeff Burton. David Ragan, ranked at 26th and with one win this season, has the potential to grab a Wild Card spot if he wins one of the next two races and moves into the top-20.
Falling Stars
Two big names fall out of Chase qualification this week, including defending Sprint Cup champion, Brad Keselowski now ranked 11th in the point standings and with no wins for the season. Keselowski’s 30th-place finish at Bristol dropped him three spots from his eighth-place spot last week. Similarly, Kurt Busch with no wins and a 31st-place finish at Bristol, was ninth last week, and drops three spots to 12th this week. Both find themselves with no ticket to Chase competition and there’s some incredible stats that go along with this revelation.
Amazingly, defending champion, Keselowski and his team are in murky waters this season compared to last season when at this time he was running consistent top-five average finishes. Looking at Keselowski’s Race to the Chase average-finish of 16.00 (13th) and his five-race average-finish of 14.2 (10th), it’s clear this team must jump-start their performance to stay in the game. A win for Keselowski in the next two races would be huge for the team.
For Busch the picture is somewhat better, but now without wins, he’s on the outside looking in for Chase competition. Busch’s outlook shows promise that he can race his way back into the top-ten to compete for his second title. His Race to the Chase average-finish of 12.88 (4th) and a five-race average-finish of 12.00 (5th) gives his fans some real promise that he’ll be right back in the game, perhaps as soon as next week. A win in the next two races would seal the deal for Busch to compete and become the first single-car team to make the Chase.
Blinking Stars
This group includes some great drivers, but with some recent bad results, there’s cause to pause with some concern heading into the last two races before the Chase begins at Chicagoland. Remember, that Brad Keselowski won the championship last year by running consistent top-five average finishes from Kentucky through Homestead-Miami. At this point of competition this season, none of these drivers have average-finishes even in the top-ten – and that’s stunning! Don’t misunderstand, there’s plenty of reason to believe these drivers can recover and still be strong contenders for a title, but they will need to turn their teams in a more positive direction in a big way to make that happen.
Let’s start with the worst news for the biggest star and that’s five-time champion Jimmie Johnson. Johnson’s last two finishes of 40th at Michigan and 36th at Bristol have him and his team in a nose dive among his fellow competitors with a Race to the Chase average-finish of 14.38 (10th) and a more recent five-race average-finish of 19.8 (17th). For Johnson, this may not be that big of a deal with four wins giving him a provisional number two spot when the Chase starts in September. Fans know better than to count Johnson out, with 12 more races before the next champion is crowned, but even with his provisional second-place starting spot, his current trend must change for him to be a strong competitor for the rest of the year.
Another big star, as NASCAR’s most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr also finds himself in a bad way without any wins this season. Add to his troubles, the team’s Race to the Chase average-finish of 15.33 (12th) and five-race average-finish of 17.4 (16th) and it’s clear, that Earnhardt needs to infuse his team with some good news soon. Earnhardt sits seventh in the point standings, just 29-points away from tenth. The three drivers below him, are all moving up the ranking ladder, with two of them with the best five-race-average-finishes among all drivers. For Earnhardt, survival means he needs to win at least one of the next two races, or he may find himself outside the top-ten without a ticket to compete in the Chase.
On the surface, Kevin Harvick appears to be sitting in a good place at sixth in the point standings with two wins under his belt. Those two wins give him a provisional starting spot of fourth when the Chase begins, but similar to Johnson, Harvick must turn the tide in a more positive direction to make that work for him in the Chase. His current Race to the Chase average finish is 13.13 (6th), but his more recent five-race average-finish is 17.00 (15th) and that’s not good news with just two more races before the Chase begins at Chicagoland. Known as the ‘Closer,’ Harvick will need to close the door on his 34th-place finish at Bristol with top-five finishes from here on out.
After finishing 39th at Bristol, and still ranked third in points, with one win, Carl Edwards‘ provisional Chase starting spot will move him to sixth after Richmond. Of these four drivers, Carl Edwards is the only driver that appears to have a five-race average-finish moving in the right direction, but he’ll need more improvement to truly compete for his first title. Edwards Race to the Chase average-finish is 16.88 (15th) and his more recent five-race average-finish is 15.4 (12th). While that’s a positive sign for Edwards and his team, they need to pump up their performance to top-five average finishes to compete with the best.
Shining Stars
Greg Biffle has been teetering on the brink of falling out of the top-ten and while that remains true, with only 17-points separating him from 11th place, there are some positive indications for him and his team. With his second top-ten finish (9th) in as many races, Biffle is moving up to ninth in the point standings this week. Also good news for Biffle is that his average-finish is improving from a Race to the Chase average-finish of 16.63 (14th) to a five-race average-finish of 13.6 (8th) among all drivers. So, if he can keep moving in a positive direction, he’ll keep his Chase hopes alive as well. It will be interesting to see what his story will tell next week?
After winning his fifth race of the season at Bristol, Matt Kenseth has put him and his team at the provisional top spot for the Chase. But the question for Kenseth is will he and his team be able to take that momentum into and throughout the Chase? Known for his consistency, Kenseth has a few highs and lows since Kentucky with two wins, one finish of fifth, one finish of ninth and four finishes of 15th, 22nd, 23rd and 33rd. The result is a Race to the Chase average-finish of 13.63 (7th). And here is where Kenseth has found consistency, as his five-race average-finish is 13.2 (7th) among his peers. If Mr. Consistency can find just that from here on out, he may be on the path to his third championship.
An 11th-place finish at Bristol was good news for Kyle Busch after following up his win at The Glen with a 31st-place finish at Michigan. And his Race to the Chase average-finish of 10.00 ranks second among all drivers. However, Busch’s more recent five-race average-finish comes in at 12.2 and is sixth among his peers. Relatively speaking, that’s fairly good news compared to all the others ranking below sixth. With three wins and a provisional third-place Chase spot, Busch appears to be on track to be one of the strongest contenders for a championship trophy this season. The bad news for Busch is there are three other drivers with better recent performances and they may give him some stiff competition.
Bright Stars on the Horizon
Ranked second in the point standings, Clint Bowyer has been a strong contender in the Race to the Chase, but without a win there’s some vulnerability for his team with a provisional ninth-place spot in the Chase. But don’t let that mask his performance compared to his peers. Separating himself from those ranked closest to him in points – Johnson (1st), Edwards (3rd), Harvick (4th) – Bowyer has the highest Race to the Chase average finish at 9.88. Although his most recent five-race average finish is lower at 11.8, he still ranks fourth among all drivers. While a win would be a welcome boost to the team, Bowyer just needs to keep out-performing his peers to contend for his first championship. The bad news for Bowyer is there are two drivers with better performances.
The next two drivers have been rocketing their teams to the top with strong performances as the Race to the Chase is winding down to the last two races.
After the road race at The Glen, Kasey Kahne was the top Wild Card holder with two wins. Incredibly, that was just two races ago. Now, Kahne is ranked eighth in points with stellar average finish stats in the Race to the Chase of 12.63, third among all drivers and a five-race average finish of 9.4, second among his peers. Right now, Kahne improves his provisional Chase spot to fifth – up three spots – and that along with his performance gives him a nice advantage among his competitors. Kahne is proving he’s one to watch when the Chase begins in September. But there is another contender…with better results.
Amazingly just two races ago, Joey Logano was 16th in the point standings with no wins, barely hanging on to the hope of a Wild Card spot – if only, he could get a win. Well…he did win at Michigan and then finished fifth at Bristol propelling him to the top-ten in points. Logano’s Race to the Chase average-finish comes in at 14.00 which is ninth – one spot ahead of Johnson. But his five-race average finish is most impressive at 5.6 and ranks first of all drivers. Logano has single-handedly shown how important wins are for those wanting to compete for the Sprint Cup trophy. The question remains, will Logano be able to keep his momentum going throughout the next 12 races?
Stay tuned in for what new surprises may be in store after the next race at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday, September 1st. Television coverage begins at 7:30pm ET on ESPN.
