Sprint Cup Series drivers head to Atlanta Motor Speedway to continue a Labor Day tradition reaching into NASCAR‘s formative years.  The AdvoCare 500 race is on Sunday, September 1st and television coverage begins at 6:30 pm ET on ESPN, with radio coverage on PRN, Sirius XM channel 90.

Great racing and legendary winners have ushered out summer and – in recent seasons – solidified the lineup of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™. This weekend looks to be no different as the series heads to the penultimate race of the regular season.

Drivers have claimed three Chase spots, leaving nine more for the taking, either at Atlanta’s 1.54-mile asphalt track or next week at Richmond International Raceway. Sunday’s race may be more about who doesn’t have provisional Chase standing than those who may punch their tickets for NASCAR’s post-season.

Three former series champions’ Chase hopes lie in the balance between soaring or diving over 501 miles of high-speed competition under the lights.

Defending champion Brad Keselowski enters the regular season’s next-to-last race, ranked 11th, four points out of the top-ten. Kurt Busch, the 2004 title-holder, stands 12th, six points down and four-time champion Jeff Gordon is 13th and 11-points down.  All three are winless for 2013 and a victory would certainly push any of them into the top-ten – and provide potential Chase Wild Card space to the two highest-ranked drivers 11th through 20th in points with the most wins.

Keselowski finished third in last year’s Atlanta race and has two top-ten finishes, but has led just two laps in four starts.

“I’m not going to be out of the worried zone unless I make it (the Chase) or it’s over,” Keselowski said recently. “We’ve got two races left. I think they’ll be good race tracks for us.”

Busch is responsible for making the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing car a Chase contender with, six top-five and 11 top-ten finishes along with a pole. Earlier this week he announced his move to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, joining new boss Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick and Danica Patrick.

“My focus still remains on the present and trying to achieve our Chase goal in the No. 78,” said Busch, a two-time Atlanta winner whose most recent victory came in 2010.

It was just a year ago, Gordon finished second in Atlanta and Richmond to grab a Wild Card. Gordon’s most recent of five Atlanta victories came in 2011 and he has finished on the lead lap in 13 consecutive races.

“We just need to do our job and get the best results possible these next two races and see how things shake out,” said Gordon.

After posting consecutive 40th-place finishes at Daytona and Loudon and dropping to 18th in the standings, Joey Logano‘s freshman season with Penske Racing seemed destined to follow the same path as his earlier campaigns – outside the Chase for the Sprint Cup title.

But this season, instead of disappearing into irrelevancy, Logano and crew chief Todd Gordon hit a hot streak. Starting with an eighth-place finish at Indianapolis, the No. 22 has finished inside the top-ten in five straight races.

Logano won at Michigan, giving the team a shot at a Chase Wild Card spot. The 23-year-old Connecticut driver wasn’t satisfied, went on to Bristol and fought hard for a fifth-place finish in his battered car. His hard-work paid off, moving Logano up to tenth in the point standings.

Logano has rebounded before – earlier this season. After starting 2013 with four consecutive finishes outside the top-ten, Logano brought home a third at Auto Club Speedway catapulting to ninth in the standings. It was the first of three appearances among the top-ten in points for Logano this season.

Now Logano must take what’s he’s earned and keep it going for two more races.

Statistically speaking, Atlanta will be challenging for Logano with his best performance of 18th in last year’s AdvoCare 500. In six starts at the track, he has an average-finish of 26.0 and Driver Rating of just 56.5. Both are the worst among drivers’ ranking in the top-12 for the Chase.

“I’ve never really run great there,” said Logano of his previous tenure with Joe Gibbs Racing. “I’ve run in the top-ten but I’ve never really had a car that’s been able to go up there in the top-five or anything like that.”

“But, like I’ve said, we’re not gonna go in there thinking that we’re gonna have a bad run.”

With just two races left in the regular season, only three drivers know with absolute certainty that they’re competing for a championship over the last ten races – the Chase. Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer have each clinched a top-ten spot in the 2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup, and Matt Kenseth locked at least a Wild Card spot with his fifth win of the season at Bristol. Kenseth will likely clinch his top-ten berth either this weekend or next at Richmond.

After Atlanta, count on others joining Johnson, Bowyer and Kenseth. Three drivers control their own destiny, and four more could clinch at least a Wild Card. Here are clinch scenarios for this weekend’s race at Atlanta.

The magic number this weekend is 49 – any driver 49 points ahead of 11th will clinch a top-ten spot. (That number could drop to 48 depending on if the driver in question owns the tie-breaker.)

Regardless of how any other driver finishes, the following will clinch a top-ten berth by accomplishing the below…

Carl Edwards – 38th-place finish or better (39th with led lap, 40th with most laps led)

Kevin Harvick – 31st-place finish or better (32nd with a lap led, 33rd with most laps led)

Kyle Busch – 10th-place finish or better (11th with a lap led, 12th with most laps led)

Matt Kenseth – 7th-place finish or better (8th with lap led, 9th with most laps led)

Dale Earnhardt Jr (33 points cushion over 11th), Kasey Kahne (20 points cushion), Greg Biffle (17 points cushion) and Joey Logano (4 point cushion) all conceivably could reach the 49-point magic number.

Martin Truex Jr, Joey Logano and Greg Biffle – all of whom have one win this season – can clinch at least a Wild Card spot with a win and some help. Kasey Kahne, with two wins, would clinch with a third win if two out of the following three drivers clinch a top-ten spot: Kyle Busch, Kenseth and Harvick. If all three clinch a top-ten, Kahne clinches if anyone other than Biffle, Logano, Truex or Newman wins.

While Logano is showing how momentum can be gained, Jimmie Johnson is showing how it can be lost.

Two races ago, holding a 77-point lead after a top-ten finish at Pocono Raceway, and by all appearances Johnson was a run-away favorite to win a sixth NASCAR Sprint Cup title. After finishes of 40th (engine failure) and 36th (accident), the high-tide of Johnson’s No. 48 team have changed dramatically. His points lead over Clint Bowyer is now just 18 markers.

No one, particularly Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus, want to be viewed as stumbling into the post-season competition.

“We certainly want to clean things up and have some great finishes rolling into the Chase,” said Johnson, a three-time Atlanta winner. Johnson holds the track’s top Driver Rating of 108.3. “There is still a lot of racing left. And once the Chase starts, it is its own animal.”

A single race may have given momentum to one of Johnson’s main competitors – Matt Kenseth, the Bristol winner.

Kenseth, ranked sixth, is clinched for at least a Wild Card berth, but more likely will qualify as a member of the regular season top-ten. If the reset were to take place today, he would be the No. 1 seed with 15 bonus points – three more than Johnson.

“I’m not always a huge believer in momentum as far as just looking at paper and looking at finishes, but I am a believer in momentum as far as performance,” said Kenseth, whose average finish had been 17.8 since his last victory in Kentucky. “We had all our speed back (at Bristol). We led some laps. Hopefully, that gives you momentum.”

Based on several tests over the past year, Goodyear’s racing division will use “zone tread” technology for its race recommendation for Atlanta. For its new Atlanta right-side tire, Goodyear has combined one compound (run recently at Michigan International Speedway) to help control heat on the inner half of the tread with a different tread (run before at Atlanta Motor Speedway) to give the cars more grip. It will be paired with the more traditional left-side tire run at Atlanta last season.

“Historically, Atlanta is one of the more difficult race tracks on tires and equipment and this tire gives us the ability to improve performance,” said Robin Pemberton, NASCAR vice president of competition. “Combining the high speeds we always see at Atlanta with the high loads in the corners and the abrasive surface that brings tire wear into play, this is the ideal track to début this technology.”

Austin Dillon returns behind the wheel of the No. 33 car this weekend, making his ninth start of the season. He has driven three different cars in 2013 – No. 33 Circle Sport Racing; No. 51 Phoenix Racing; No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing – with a best finish of 11th at Michigan in the No. 33.

Looking to reach a milestone at Atlanta this weekend, Toyota’s next win will be their 250th in NASCAR national series competition.

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