The clock is ticking down on the last Race to the Chase at Richmond International Raceway on Saturday night, September 7th – coming up this weekend. One last chance for eight drivers to grab a Wild Card spot for the 2013 ten-race Chase for a Sprint Cup championship.
After the race at Atlanta, six competitors have claimed their place in the Chase’s top-ten including, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth. Seventh-place Dale Earnhardt Jr faces the least pressure among non-qualifiers, needing only a finish of 32nd or better in the 400-lap race at Richmond to enter the post season competition.
Joey Logano, Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch complete the provisional top-ten – 16, 14 and six points ahead of 11th place Jeff Gordon. Each with one victory, Logano and Biffle have some Chase insurance as potential Wild Cards if they should fall out of the top-ten.
This week’s Sprint Cup Chase tracker analyzes driver Race to the Chase average-finishes – Kentucky to Atlanta – and their more recent five-race average-finishes – Pocono to Atlanta. And as in previous Chase Tracker posts, there are a few surprises in store.
Wild Card Contenders
Richmond is all about which drivers will secure their place in the Chase by grabbing a Wild Card in the last race of the regular season. And it is certainly a tight competition this year and several drivers moving between the top-ten and chasing a Wild Card spot.
Kasey Kahne with two wins, holds the first Wild Card ticket into the post-race season and is just ten points away from tenth-place qualification. Will he race his way into tenth-place at Richmond, leaving another open Wild Card spot for those outside the top-ten? Kahne is definitely one to keep an eye on throughout Richmond’s night of racing on Saturday. If Kahne does move into the top-ten, his two wins will give him a better Chase starting spot at Chicagoland.
Martin Truex Jr holds the second Wild Card for the Chase and is only 15-points away from the top-ten. His third-place finish at Atlanta, after finishing 35th at Bristol certainly moves his team in the right direction heading into the last race of the regular season. Truex could also race his way into the top-ten at Richmond, leaving his Wild Card spot for another contender.
Former Sprint Cup champions Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon, are both without wins for the season, meaning their Richmond race can either make or break their chances of making it into the Chase. Kurt Busch is in the top-ten after Atlanta, but sits only six-points away from Gordon in 11th-place. With Kahne just four-points behind Gordon, any of these three drivers may or may not be in the top-ten when the checkered flag waves on Saturday night. Of the three only Kahne has wins (two) to insure his ticket into the Chase.
What Kurt Busch has in his favor is his five-race average-finish of 10.0 ranks second among all drivers.
For Gordon this is similar to his circumstances last year. In 2012, the four-time champion entered Richmond battling Kyle Busch for the second Wild Card berth. He prevailed by a mere three points by finishing second. Gordon is among other drivers clinching their place in the Chase in the last race of the regular season. Ryan Newman‘s sixth-place finish in 2005 is the best among the ‘last in’ drivers. Brian Vickers (2009), Kasey Kahne (2006) and Jeremy Mayfield (2004) also were last-race qualifiers. Who will grab their Chase spot at Richmond in 2013?
Gordon’s five-race average finish is 13.6 and ranks sixth among all drivers.
If Wild Card spots are opened up at Richmond, the next in line to take over a Wild Card berth is Ryan Newman with his win at Indianapolis. Newman and his team will be keeping a close eye on their Wild Card rivals to take advantage of their golden opportunity, as they did in 2005. That experience is a plus for Newman.
Newman’s five-race average-finish is 11.4 and ranks fourth among all drivers.
Last year’s Sprint Cup champion, Brad Keselowski has a much harder road to race into the Chase. Keselowski is winless for the season and now sits 15th in the point standings and 28 points away from tenth. For him, Richmond is all about winning to give him his potential ticket into Chase competition. Other winless contenders – 16 through 20th – inlcude, Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, and new to the top-20 are Juan Pablo Montoya and Marcos Ambrose.
David Ragan – 25th in the point standings – remains the only driver, outside the top-20, with a win and could potentially grab a Wild Card with another win this weekend at Richmond.
Falling Stars
Only one driver fell in the point standings this week from third to fourth and that driver is Carl Edwards, with his 18th-place finish at Atlanta. Although that finish is better than his 39th-place finish at Bristol, it remains below what is needed to contend for a championship. Edwards Race to the Chase average-finish is 17.00 and his more recent five-race average finish is 16.4, ranking him 15th and 13th respectively.
Fading Stars
Keeping in mind this is the Race to the Chase, the next driver has been performing below par for the past three races, giving him the lowest five-race average-finish of 25.00 which ranks 19th among all drivers. Jimmie Johnson‘s results (40th/Michigan, 36th/Bristol and 28th/Atlanta) over the last three races are not reflective of his five-time championship level of skill. It’s totally fair to expect a resurgence of this team once the Chase begins at Chicagoland as Johnson and his team are committed to making a run for their sixth title.
NASCAR’s most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr, from the same team – Hendrick Motorsports – is also in a bit of a slump, with a five-race average-finish of 17.8 (ranks 16th). The difference, however, is that Johnson has four wins versus, no wins for Earnhardt. Also, Earnhardt’s last two races have resulted in top-ten finishes of tenth at Bristol and eighth at Atlanta. Look for another top-ten or better performance at Richmond.
Blinking Stars
Hopefully, Clint Bowyer‘s one mulligan happened at Atlanta with his worst finish of the Race to the Chase with a 39th-place finish. His five-race average-finish is 15.6 and ranks tenth among all drivers. Expect Bowyer to be racing for his first win of the season at Richmond. With his second-place in the point standings, a win would improve his post-season provisional starting spot from eighth to fourth.
Matt Kenseth, follows his fifth season win at Bristol with a 12th-place finish at Atlanta and a five-race average-finish of 14.6, which ranks eighth of all drivers. The team is not too worried at this point, as his provisional start for the Chase ranks him first among his peers. The worst scenario for Kenseth at Richmond is if Johnson comes up with a win to unseat him from the provisional top spot for the start of the Chase.
Twinkling Stars
Kevin Harvick moved up to third in the point standings this week with his ninth-place finish at Atlanta. It’s a nice recovery from his 34th-place finish at Bristol and along with his two wins, he now holds a provisional starting spot of fourth when the Chase begins. Even if Harvick gets a third win for the season at Richmond, it won’t change his provisional fourth-place. However, Harvick may want to improve his five-race average-finish of 15.0 which ranks ninth among all drivers.
Although Greg Biffle is now ranked ninth in the point standings, his five-race average-finish of 11.8 ranks fifth among all drivers. Also, Biffle’s June Michigan win gives him seventh-place starting spot to start the Chase. Again, it will interesting to see if Biffle can find more consistency in the final ten races in search of a Sprint Cup crown.
Kyle Busch has put himself in great position heading into the Chase, as he is ranked fifth in the point standings and his four wins give him a provisional starting spot of third for the start of the Chase. He backs that up with a five-race average finish of 10.4, which ranks third among all drivers. If Busch can pull off another win at Richmond he’ll take over the provisional top-spot for the beginning of the Chase at Chicagoland.
Bright Star
Three weeks ago, no one thought Joey Logano would experience a meteoric rise on his pathway to competing for his first Sprint Cup championship. After finishing second at Atlanta, Logano continues his string of top-five finishes, giving him the best five-race average finish among all drivers of 4.40. The closest driver to him in second-place (for this category) is Kurt Busch at 10.00. A lot can change once the Chase begins, so it will be interesting to see if Logano is able to sustain his amazing performance for Richmond and then the next ten races of the Chase.
The last Race to the Chase event is at Richmond this Saturday night, September 7th. Television coverage begins at 7pm ET on ABC and radio coverage on MRN, Sirius XM, channel 90.
