The Sprint Cup Series is racing 300 laps for a total of 317.4-miles in the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Sunday, September 22nd with the green flag starting the action at 2pm ET. Television coverage on ESPN begins at 1pm ET with radio coverage on PRN, Sirius XM, channel 90.
Matt Kenseth pulled off a feat only accomplished once before. And in doing so, may have laid the foundation for a second Sprint Cup Series championship – a full decade after his first.
Kenseth won the opening Chase race as the top seed – only Mark Martin in 2009 had done that before. Now he looks to join another all-time great, Terry Labonte as the only driver with a decade or more between his first and second championships. Labonte’s first came in 1984 and his second in 1996.
Since Chicagoland Speedway became host of the first Chase race, the race winner has gone on to win the championship, with Tony Stewart in 2011 and Brad Keselowski in 2012. If history is a blueprint, that may very well happen again.
Two major roadblocks stand in Kenseth’s way. First and foremost is New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where Kenseth has just two top-tens in the last 11 races. His average finish over that period is 18.6. But on the bright side, all but one of those finishes were in Roush Fenway Racing equipment. His lone race with Joe Gibbs Racing is a ninth-place finish in July.
Kenseth’s second challenge is the rest of the Chase field is putting Kenseth on notice – he may be the favorite, but in no way will he breeze to a second championship.
The top-six drivers in Sunday’s race are all Chase drivers and even with his maximum points win, Kenseth’s points lead grew by a mere five-points – from three to eight over Kyle Busch. And he didn’t pad his cushion over many other Chasers either. The top-seven are all separated by just 25-points.
So give round one to Kenseth. But look out for Jimmie Johnson and Busch – the second and third seed entering the Chase – they’re not far behind.
Adding to Kenseth’s challenge on Sunday, Busch finished second at New Hampshire in June, leading 53 laps. And Johnson has 11 top-tens in he last 13 races, including a runner-up finish in last year’s New Hampshire race.
For Dale Earnhardt Jr and Joey Logano, engine troubles ended their night early at Chicagoland, dropping the two drivers to 12th and 13th in the point standings. Heading to New Hampshire, the second round of the Chase, Logano and Earnhardt sit 52 and 53 points behind points leader Kenseth. But there’s still hope with plenty of Chase left – just ask Jimmie Johnson.
Those in the Logano and Earnhardt camps can find solace in that Johnson started off the 2006 Chase on a rather sour note, finishing 39th in the first Chase race, which coincidentally was in New Hampshire. The lackluster start dropped him from second to ninth in the standings, in a year with only ten Chase contenders.
As everyone knows, Johnson rebounded after the opening race to capture the first of his record five consecutive titles on the strength of one win and four runner-up finishes in the last nine races. It was the worst finish in the first Chase race by an eventual champion.
In ten starts at the 1.058-mile oval, Logano has one win – June 2009 – and four top-tens. The win was the Connecticut native’s first trip to victory lane in the Sprint Cup Series. Earnhardt has collected seven top-fives and 11 top-tens in 28 starts at the track, with his best finish, a third in September 2004. Clearly, Earnhardt and Logano would have preferred a strong start.
History indicates a top-ten finish in the first Chase race is ideal for championship hopes. The average finish in the first Chase race for the eventual champion is 9.0, with seven of the previous nine eventual titlists finishing in the top-ten.
2004 – Kurt Busch – Won at New Hampshire
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd at New Hampshire
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 39th at New Hampshire
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 6th at New Hampshire
2008 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd at New Hampshire
2009 – Jimmie Johnson – 4th at New Hampshire
2010 – Jimmie Johnson – 25th at New Hampshire
2011 – Tony Stewart – Won at Chicagoland
2012 – Brad Keselowski – Won at Chicagoland
Over the last 11 Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire, dating back to June 2008, 11 different drivers have visited victory lane. Of those 11, seven are contenders in this year’s Chase – Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne. Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and Brian Vickers are the other four most recent winners.
One of the Chase drivers not among the 11 most recent winners at Louden, NH, is Kevin Harvick, who finished third in the opening Chase race at Chicagoland. This Sunday during the Sylvania 300 he will try to add his name to that list as the 12th consecutive different winner.
In 25 starts, Harvick has been running at the finish in all 25 races, finishing on the lead lap in 19 of them. He has compiled five top-fives and 13 top-tens and has crossed the finish line first after leading 196 of 300 laps in the September 2006 event, the opening race of that year’s Chase. In 17 races, his average driver rating at the track is 92.1, tied for ninth best among all active drivers.
Harvick was seeded fourth with the Chase field reset before the Chicagoland race, just nine points behind leader, Matt Kenseth. Harvick earned six bonus points for taking home trophies from the spring Richmond race and the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte. He remains fourth in points, now 15 markers outside of first.
For past champions, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch, overcoming adversity and rebounding from bad luck have defined their 2013 season. The first Chase race at Chicagoland was no different.
Busch faced a pit road speeding penalty during a green-flag pit stop early in last Sunday’s race, but rebounded for a fourth-place finish – his career best finish at Chicagoland Speedway. Four-time champion, Gordon fell victim to bad luck – a cut tire trapping him one lap down – but charged back through the field to finish sixth.
The strong start for the former champions could spell trouble for other Chase contenders. Their resilience at Chicagoland placed them sixth and seventh in points. This weekend’s race will be at a track where both drivers have been strong in the past; they each boast three wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
When Busch won the championship in 2004 his only Chase win during the playoff stretch came in New Hampshire. Busch ran in the top-five during the July New Hampshire race before his tangle with Ryan Newman put him back to a 31st-place finish. Jeff Gordon is at the top of just about every statistical category at the track, including average running position and driver rating. Gordon also picked up a top-ten earlier this year at the first NHMS event with the new Gen-6 car.
In Denny Hamlin’s first seven years of full-time racing in Sprint Cup, he has earned a spot in NASCAR’s post season each time. In 2013, his eighth season, the streak is ended and for the first time in his career, Hamlin is on the outside looking in as others contend for the title.
He has company, in the form of Brian Vickers, who is driving the No. 55 Michael Waltrip Racing car in preparation for his full-time return to the series in 2014.
Hamlin and Vickers are the two most recent drivers to celebrate wins at New Hampshire. Although neither driver is in the Chase field, both drivers are expected to be gunning for the win, hoping to play the role of ‘spoiler.’ Hamlin, now 27th in the point standings, won this event last September, leading 193 of 300 laps. He also won in New Hampshire in July 2007. He has compiled seven top-five and ten top-ten finishes in 15 starts, with an average driver rating of 103.5, fourth among all active drivers.
Nationwide Series regular, Vickers has split seat time between the No. 55 and No. 11 this season, competing in 13 events. At New Hampshire earlier this season, Vickers scored an improbable win after leading only the last 16 circuits. In 16 starts at the track, he has finished in the top-ten four times with an average driver rating of 84.3.
If Clint Bowyer has a solid run at New Hampshire and finishes in the top-five, it will be the Kansas native’s 50th top-five finish in the Sprint Cup Series. Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth and David Gilliland will all hit milestones this weekend – 875th Sprint Cup start for Martin, 500th series start for Kenseth and 250th start for Gilliland. Martin is subbing for Tony Stewart in the No. 14 car and is fifth on the all-time series starts list behind only Richard Petty (1,185), Ricky Rudd (906), Terry Labonte (885) and Dave Marcis (883). With 40 laps led at Chicagoland, Jimmie Johnson became the ninth driver to reach 15,000 laps led. Next on the list is Rusty Wallace, who led 19,971 laps in his 25-year career.
