Sprint Cup Series, Auto Club 400 at Fontana Preview

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For the 2014 season, if you win and you’re in. With his victory at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday night, Carl Edwards more than likely locked himself into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. So who is next?

Perhaps, it’s starts with Jimmie Johnson when the Sprint Cup Teams head to California. Johnson, an El Cajon, CA native has won a record five races at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA. Johnson also has the most top-fives (12), most top-tens (14), most laps led (851), top driver rating (119.6) and best average start (9.6) and finish (5.7). He’s pretty good there.

The six-time champion has finished in the top-ten in ten of the last 11 races; his worst finish during that stretch is 12th, last season.

And this weekend, it seems he’s due. He has finished in the top-six in three of the first four races this season – and probably could have notched another top-ten if not for a tire issue at Bristol. He’s tallied double-digit laps led figures in three of the four races, and scored triple-digit driver ratings in three of the four. This weekend, tells the rest of Johnson’s story at his hometown track.

Fans started the season celebrating Tony Stewart’s return to Sprint Cup Series competition with the twitter hashtag #StandWithSmoke. And soon, fans may see him in victory lane.

After scraping off some rust in the first three races of the season – he finished 35th, 16th and 33rd – Stewart blistered through the field at the end of Sunday’s race at Bristol to finish fourth.

After missing 15 races last year because of a broken leg, Stewart may be ready to win a race – maybe as soon as Sunday. Stewart has won two of the last three races at Auto Club Speedway. Over the last six ACS races, he finished in the top-ten four times.

The three-time series’ champion’s new-found momentum – and positivity – has a lot to do with the growing pains of life with a new crew chief, Chad Johnston. Johnston called the shots for Martin Truex Jr for the past three seasons. Now a chemistry is building with his new driver.

“It’s something I needed for sure,” Stewart said after the Bristol race. “Obviously for Chad and I to work together for the first time for four or five races into the season and be able to get a top-five at Bristol, that is pretty big for us. We had a really good car, very balanced and very drivable. Chad just kept working on it all day and making it better for us.”

On the other side of the coin, Bristol provided a speed bump in an otherwise dreamlike season for Dale Earnhardt Jr. But there’s always the next race.

This Sunday, Earnhardt will try to rebound from his first finish outside the top-two (he finished 24th at Bristol). In 21 Sprint Cup Series races at the two-mile speedway, his best finish is a pair of second-place showings. His first runner-up showing came in September 2006 with the second one coming last March. In 2012 he finished third.

FastFactsFollowing a natural progression of Earnhardt’s improvement over his last two trips at Auto Club Speedway, his fans want to believe that he’s due for a win. This thinking might be fairly close to the truth, as Earnhardt was in contention to win late in the Phoenix and Las Vegas races. His Daytona win and the new Chase qualifying format – where a win all but guarantees a driver a spot in the post season – has allowed him to race all out for the win every weekend.

Earnhardt did win the 1998 Nationwide Series race at Auto Club Speedway, so he knows what it takes to win at the track.

Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon completed their first 500-lap race at Bristol Motor Speedway, finishing tenth and 11th respectively; with Larson taking Rookie of the Race honors for the second time this year. Though Dillon leads the Rookie standings, his lead is shrinking. He holds a six-point lead over Larson, down from eight after Las Vegas – his largest cushion of the season.

Larson’s strong performance at Bristol and his Nationwide Series win at Auto Club Speedway put the rest of the field on high alert – though it’s his first season, he’s for real. Larson contended for the win in the last 100 laps at Bristol scoring a driver rating (104.5) that ranked fourth best. Saturday afternoon in the Nationwide Series race at Fontana, Larson held of Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, with both making several attempts to take Larson’s lead in the closing laps. Can he back up his strong performance again on Sunday in his home state of California?

Auto Club Speedway has been a site for big name first-time winners in the past. California native Jimmie Johnson scored his first Sprint Cup win as a Rookie contender in his first start at Auto Club Speedway in 2002. Kyle Busch won his first Sprint Cup Pole award and his first race at Auto Club Speedway as a Rookie contender in 2005.

None of this year’s Rookie contenders have started a Sprint Cup race at Auto Club Speedway. Dillon, Larson and Parker Kligerman are the only rookie contenders to post top-ten finishes at Auto Club Speedway in the Nationwide Series. Larson, a native of Elk Grove, CA, posted a sixth-place finish in his only Nationwide start at what he considers his home track. Dillon finished fifth in each of his two Nationwide starts in Fontana.

During the 2013 Sprint Cup season, Ricky Stenhouse Jr managed to post one top-five, three top-tens, and a highest finish of third. Through four races of the 2014 season, Stenhouse has already posted one top-five, two top-tens, and a highest finish of second. This year’s stats for Stenhouse are more comparable to his stats in the Nationwide Series than any of his stats from last year’s rookie season. So what’s different this year about the No. 17 Roush Fenway team? Crew chief Mike Kelley.

Stenhouse and Kelley enjoyed the success of two Nationwide Series championships and eight Nationwide wins from 2011 to 2012. During this past off-season, Stenhouse and Kelley requested to work together once again, this time in the Sprint Cup Series. The duo knew this request would bring attention and added pressure. So far it’s paid off.

Before the season, Stenhouse discussed adding Kelley to his team,

“We’re really looking forward to having Mike back on the pit box with me. Mike Kelley and I get along so well and have that good chemistry that you need in a race team, so I’m really looking forward to getting to the track with him.”

Four races in, his enthusiasm is just as high.

“It’s been nice working with Mike and the guys again. We’re having a lot of fun. We’re just slowly working and getting better and better.”

With confidence levels at an all-time high for Stenhouse, a strong Stenhouse performance at Auto Club Speedway. Stenhouse Jr. and Kelley recorded top-fives in both their Nationwide series starts together at the two-mile track.

Nine California natives are on the entry list for the Auto Club 400: Johnson (El Cajon), Jeff Gordon (Vallejo), AJ Allmendinger (Los Gatos), Larson (Elk Grove), Casey Mears (Bakersfield), David Gilliland (Riverside), Cole Whitt (Alpine), Kevin Harvick (Bakersfield), Josh Wise (Riverside).

Last year’s Auto Club Speedway winner, Kyle Busch needs 67 laps led this weekend at Auto Club – a feat he’s accomplished five times at the two-mile track – to become the 15th driver in the Sprint Cup Series to log 10,000 laps led.