Indianapolis Motor Speedway: The Quiet Wild Card

At face value, this makes zero sense: Sunday’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway might rank right up there with Sonoma, Daytona, Talladega and Watkins Glen as “wild-card” tracks in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season.

Anyone can win…and nab an all-but-guaranteed spot in Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Of course, the statistics suggest otherwise. After all, the Brickyard is truly the home of champions. Heading into the 20th anniversary of NASCAR racing at Indy, legendary names have conquered more often than not.

For instance:

–  15 of the 20 races are by past, future or reigning series champions.

–  Eight winners have gone on to win that year’s Sprint Cup championship.

–  Three NASCAR Hall of Famers have won: Dale Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett (twice) and Bill Elliott. And three others, at least, are surefire HOFers the second they’re eligible: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart.

So, calling this a wild-card race seems, well, absurd. But it’s not…not when the recent winners list includes names like Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard and Ryan Newman, all of whom are winless in 2014. Even Stewart, a two-time Brickyard winner, still seeks his first victory of the season.

There’s a very good chance a first-timer wins this Sunday’s Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400 at The Brickyard.

Here’s a closer look at some of the favorites to capture a ‘surprise’ win:

Tony Stewart: The word ‘surprise’ was in quotation marks for a reason. A Stewart win would shock no one, considering his brilliant history at his home track. The two-time Brickyard winner has finished in the top-ten in five consecutive Indy races, and nine of the last ten.

Kasey Kahne: Kahne’s Brickyard career got off to a blistering start, with finishes of fourth and second in 2004 and 2005. Then it stalled. For a long time. Until last year. Kahne finished third last year, and his sense of urgency for a 2014 win has reached red alert levels.

Jamie McMurray: McMurray’s dream season of 2010 started with a win in the Daytona 500, which preceded a win in the Brickyard 400. Now 21st in points, a win would have a big impact for this team.

Stewart, Kahne and McMurray are all on the outside-looking-in of the Chase Grid Outlook. As the regular season draws to a close, a win could become their only route to the Chase.

The following ‘surprises’ are inside the Chase bubble.

Paul Menard: His first – and, thus far, only – Sprint Cup Series win came at Indy in 2011. He chipped in respectable finishes of 14th and 12th since then. Menard now sits 15th in the Chase Grid Outlook.

Ryan Newman: Different team, same result? Newman certainly hopes so. Newman won at his home track last year while with Stewart-Haas Racing and returns this weekend driving for Richard Childress Racing. The South Bend, Indiana native is coming off a fifth place finish at New Hampshire, and is 13th on the Chase Grid Outlook.

Matt Kenseth: Among the winless crowd, Kenseth’s No. 20 squad is likely the top Toyota team to break the Chevrolet streak. Kenseth has finished fifth in two of the last three Brickyard races, and has a couple of runner-up finishes in his 14-race Indy career.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has a couple of top-fives at Indy, but an otherwise pedestrian record at the big track. Still, he rides some momentum heading into the weekend, coming off consecutive top-ten finishes at Daytona and New Hampshire. He looks to end a 60-race winless streak on Sunday.

Teammates And Tie-breakers: Johnson, Gordon Sit Atop Brickyard Wins List

Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are pretty much locked into the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Johnson needs only to secure a top-30 spot and attempt to qualify for the remaining races, and he’ll go 11-for-11 in Chase appearances. Jeff Gordon has locked up a top-30 spot. His win at Kansas all but assured him a spot in the Chase; another win would guarantee it – assuming, of course, he attempts to qualify for all the races.

So now what?

Now, bonus points. And bragging rights.

Gordon has held the title of King of the Brickyard within NASCAR racing. His four wins stood as the pinnacle. Then, in 2012, Johnson tied that mark. He came close to surpassing it last year with a runner-up finish to winner Ryan Newman.

Some notes to think about when comparing these two champions…

• It’s the 20th anniversary of the inaugural Brickyard 400, won by Gordon, who’s still the youngest winner ever there at 23 years, 2 days.
• As mentioned earlier, the winner of the Brickyard race went on to win that year’s championship eight times. Three of those were by Jimmie Johnson in 2006, 2008, and 2009.
• Both are looking to snap out of mini-slumps. Gordon has finished outside the top-ten in the last two races with a 12th at Daytona; 26th at New Hampshire.  Johnson has finished 42nd in the last two races, thanks to consecutive DNFs that have allowed him to run only 31 of a possible 417 laps.

Hot Keselowski Best Bet To End Chevy Dominance

Apparently, only road courses and mother nature can stop Brad Keselowski.

The only two blips over the last two months were a 22nd-place finish at Sonoma Raceway and an 18th-place run at Daytona. And in the latter, Keselowski was the first driver a lap down when the race ended due to rain. Who knows what could have happened?

Otherwise, Keselowski has been on fire – and on a mission. It’s a mission of redemption. From the start of 2014, Keselowski has focused on erasing the championship hangover memories of 2013.

Last year, he became only the second driver in the Chase era to miss the Chase a year after winning the championship. This year is completely different.

Over the last seven races, Keselowski has scored two wins, two runner-up finishes and a third. He locked himself into the Chase – assuming he attempts to qualify for the next seven races – and has climbed from ninth to third in the points, which matters little to the three-time winner.

Now, the driver of the No. 2 Ford looks ride that momentum, and end Chevrolet’s streak off 11 consecutive wins at the Brickyard.  He’ll need a rather large improvement from past Indy performances. In four starts there, Keselowski has managed only a best finish of ninth – twice, in 2011-12. Last year, he finished 21st.

Noteworthy in the Sprint Cup Series

Chase Grid Clinch Update: Those drivers with multiple wins and who cannot fall out of the top-30 in points have clinched a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, assuming they attempt to qualify for the remaining races. As announced after the race in New Hampshire, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski have clinched a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, assuming they attempt to qualify for the remaining seven races.

Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth have clinched a top-30 spot, but do not have multiple wins. At Indianapolis, the following drivers can clinch a Chase spot with a win or by clinching a top-30 spot: Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. The magic number for a top-30 clinch: 289. Any driver 289 points ahead of 31st place leaving Indy will clinch a top-30 points spot.

Milestone Marker: Casey Mears will start his 400th career Sprint Cup Series race. Brian Vickers will start his 300th Sprint Cup race.

With 91 more laps led, Jeff Gordon will have led 24,000 career laps in the Sprint Cup Series.