NASCAR is about to begin its 2023 season at Daytona International Speedway after a successful Clash at the LA Coliseum exhibition race earlier this month. Following is the pre-season power ranking for the NASCAR Cup Series before the season-opening race this Sunday, February 19th.
1. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports #9)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1200
Championship Odds: +550
Since winning his first Cup Series championship in 2020, Elliott has consistently been one of the series’ top drivers. He picked up a series-high five wins in 2022 and returned to the Championship 4 once again. Ultimately, Elliott fell short at the hands of Joey Logano, but he enters the 2023 season as the championship favorite. With Elliott’s undeniable talent and the strength of the Hendrick Motorsports cars, there shouldn’t be any doubt about his legitimacy as a contender this season.
2. Joey Logano (Team Penske #22)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1400
Championship Odds: +1100
Logano capped off a solid 2022 season with his second career championship after taking the checkered flag at Phoenix. Despite this accomplishment, Logano’s +1100 odds to repeat in 2023 show that oddsmakers aren’t necessarily a believer in the No. 22. Logano’s odds put him behind Elliott, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and even teammate Ryan Blaney. It feels odd to say that the defending champion could be a sleeper, but that seems to be the case this season. It is incredibly difficult to repeat as a NASCAR champion. After all, no one has done it since Jimmie Johnson won five straight from 2006-2010, but Logano’s consistency will make him a serious threat to pick up title number three.
3. Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports #5)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1200
Championship Odds: +600
After his incredibly dominant 2021 season that saw him win ten races and the championship, it seemed like Larson was viewed as a shoo-in to at least return to the Championship 4 in 2022. Unfortunately for Larson, the NASCAR playoffs reared its ugly head, knocking him out in the Round of 12 and ending his run at defending a championship. Part of Larson’s issue last season was just bad luck; he finished just 29 of the 36 races, the least of any driver who finished top 10 in points, with a few of those DNF’s being completely out of his control. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a rebound season for Larson, and the odds reflect that, as he only narrowly trails Elliott as the championship favorite.
4. Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing #1)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1600
Championship Odds: +1200
For years, we had been hearing that if Ross Chastain was able to get himself a seriously competitive ride, he would be a force to be reckoned with. That didn’t quite ring true with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021, but Chastain has found a home with Trackhouse. He was a breakout star in 2022, winning twice and leading the series in both top fives (15) and top tens (21). He made his first career playoff appearance, and took himself all the way to a runner-up finish in the championship race. Of course, with any driver who exceeds expectations, there is the threat of regression, but there is no sign of Trackhouse or Chastain taking a step back. Don’t be surprised if he returns to Phoenix as a threat to win this year.
5. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing #11)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1200
Championship Odds: +800
In a crazy 2022 season, Hamlin may have had the wildest individual season of any driver. Halfway through the season, despite having two wins, he sat 20th in points. Even with the rough start, Hamlin was unsurprisingly still in contention when the playoffs reached the Round of 8, and he would have advanced to the championship race if not for Ross Chastain’s crazy wall-riding move at Martinsville. The storyline of Hamlin’s inability to win a championship continues to loom large, and for every year he doesn’t get it done, it will become more difficult. That being said, Hamlin is still a yearly contender, and 2023 may just be the year he finishes the job.
6. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske #12)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1200
Championship Odds: +1000
Similar to Hamlin, Blaney had himself a bit of an odd 2022. He spent the majority of the regular season in the top five in points, and made a run to the Round of 8, but also failed to visit victory lane. There is no longer a question of whether or not Blaney can run consistently in Penske equipment, but the question now becomes whether he can truly put together a championship-caliber season. The oddsmakers seem to think so, as Blaney has the fourth-highest odds to win the title, ahead of defending champion Joey Logano. We’ll see if he makes his bettors proud.
7. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing #20)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2500
Championship Odds: +1200
After a 2021 season in which Bell wasn’t a consistent threat to win and was somewhat disappointing with Joe Gibbs Racing, he bounced back in a big way last year. Bell visited victory lane three times, and made his first career appearance in the Championship 4. He clinched that championship appearance with a clutch win at Martinsville, and his 20 top ten finishes tied him for second most in the series. There’s always the potential for regression after such a breakout season, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Bell repeat his feat and once again find himself fighting for a title at Phoenix.
8. Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing #45)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2000
Championship Odds: +1500
If any driver fit the ‘all or nothing’ mantra in 2022, it was Reddick, who finished only 19 of 36 races on the lead lap, yet won three races and comfortably made the playoffs. He bowed out in the Round of 16 in what was ultimately a disappointing final result, but expectations will be sky high this season. Reddick signed with 23XI Racing after three seasons with Richard Childress Racing, which should be a slight upgrade in equipment. If Reddick is able to keep his equipment clean and run less eventful races this year, there’s an outside chance that he could make a run at a championship. He certainly has the talent to do so if everything comes together.
9. Kyle Busch (Richard Childress Racing #8)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1600
Championship Odds: +1200
Replacing Reddick in the RCR No. 8 car, in the highest profile move of the NASCAR off-season, was Busch. After over a decade with Joe Gibbs Racing, Busch’s move to RCR is one that will shake up the entire NASCAR landscape for years to come. Even with a slight downgrade in equipment, Busch’s talent should still be very visible with RCR, and he can never be counted out. The two-time champion rebounded last season after a tumultuous 2021 season, though his postseason
10. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports #24)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1600
Championship Odds: +1200
Byron had a bit of a confusing 2022 season. He made it to the Round of 8 and picked up a pair of victories, but after being one of the series’ most consistent drivers in 2021, he picked up just 11 top tens last season. That number was the least among his Hendrick counterparts, and his season included separate stretches of seven and nine races without a top ten. Byron is firmly within the second tier of drivers, guys who probably aren’t bona fide championship contenders but can win on any given week because of their talent and equipment. If he can put together a more consistent season, there’s no reason that he can’t make his first Championship 4 appearance this year.
11. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing #4)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2500
Championship Odds: +1800
For much of 2022, things looked eerily similar to 2021 for Harvick, who carried a long winless streak throughout much of the season. He broke that streak with back-to-back victories at Michigan and Richmond, but bowed out in the first round of the playoffs in a somewhat surprising turn of events. This year is Harvick’s swan song, as the 60-time race winner announced he will retire from full-time racing after the season. He may not be the driver he was in his prime, but it would be crazy to ever count out The Closer, especially as he closes out his career.
12. Martin Truex Jr. (Joe Gibbs Racing #19)
Daytona 500 Odds: +3000
Championship Odds: +1100
Anyone who may have bet on Truex to miss the playoffs in 2022 would have made themselves a good bit of money. Joking aside, Truex finished 6th in regular season points, but was the victim of a year that saw 15 unique winners in the first 26 races, narrowly dropping the last playoff spot to Ryan Blaney. It’s hard to imagine him missing the playoffs again, but there’s a good chance he’ll need to break his winless streak to make a postseason return. The 42-year old hasn’t made any official announcements, but there is some thought that he may join Harvick in retirement after the season. It will be an interesting development to follow as the year goes on.
13. Chase Briscoe (Stewart-Haas Racing #14)
Daytona 500 Odds: +3000
Championship Odds: +4000
After what could only be classified as a disappointing 2021 season, Briscoe burst onto the scene in 2022. He dominated the early-season Phoenix race for his first career win, and made a deep playoff run that nearly saw him sneak into the Championship 4. It was a breakout year for a driver who was utterly dominant in the Xfinity Series prior to his Cup career, and shouldn’t be a surprise considering his well-rounded abilities as a driver. On the other side of things, Briscoe had a rough regular season following his win, recording just two more top ten finishes prior to the playoffs, and heading into the playoffs as one of the lowest ranked qualifying drivers. He’ll look to take another step forward this year and become a weekly winning threat.
14. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports #48)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2500
Championship Odds: +3000
The 2022 season ended with a bit of an asterisk for Bowman, after he suffered an injury in a crash at Texas and had to miss five races. Bowman’s absence knocked him out of the playoffs in the Round of 12, an unfortunate end to what was an otherwise solid season. Aside from a summer stretch where he recorded four DNF’s in a six race span, he was much more consistent than in past years, spending much of the regular season inside the top 10 in points. Bowman will need to build off of that season this year, and ideally make a deeper playoff run as well. With the talent pool at Hendrick Motorsports being so deep, the case could be made that he is the team’s fourth driver, and that’s not an ideal place to be. 2023 could be a big year for Bowman’s future.
15. Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing #3)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2500
Championship Odds: +25000
It took a last-ditch effort at the regular season finale, but Dillon was able to sneak into the playoffs yet again in 2022, something he has become a regular at achieving. He was unable to advance out of the first round this time, but once again put together a season filled with little flash and lots of effectiveness. Dillon’s 16.5 average finish was better than that of Alex Bowman, new teammate Kyle Busch, and former teammate Tyler Reddick, and he ran competitively in the playoffs even after getting eliminated. It seems like we know what to expect from Dillon at this stage in his career, and he will always be a guy with a serious chance at the playoffs regardless of the competition.
16. Austin Cindric (Team Penske #2)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2000
Championship Odds: +5000
After winning the Daytona 500 and getting the pole in the second race of the season at Auto Club, Cindric appeared well on his way to being a championship contender as a rookie. Unfortunately for Cindric, things fizzled out somewhat after his hot start, as his nine top ten finishes were the least among any playoff driver. This year, Cindric will be a driver to watch out for as someone who could take a sizable step forward, especially given his prowess on road courses. He was unable to get to victory lane after Daytona last year, but with more and more road courses on the schedule, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him bring home the checkered at least once.
17. Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse Racing #99)
Daytona 500 Odds: +3000
Championship Odds: +5000
Year number two with Trackhouse Racing was a lot kinder to Suarez than year one. Suarez picked up his first career win after a long wait by taking the checkered flag at Sonoma, and also made his first playoffs appearance. Suarez was a legitimate threat to win at numerous different tracks, and even advanced in the playoffs before being eliminated in the Round of 12. A return to the playoffs is far from guaranteed with the strength of the 2023 field, but Suarez showed that he can run with the big guns last year, and he could build on it this season as well.
18. Erik Jones (Legacy Motor Co. #43)
Daytona 500 Odds: +2500
Championship Odds: +10000
Jones has had an interesting career arc to say the least. He started off in Cup with Furniture Row Racing in 2017 before three relatively disappointing seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing. After being dropped from JGR’s No. 20 car prior to 2021, he joined Richard Petty Motorsports and an uneventful season, finishing 24th in points. Last year, however, Jones made his RPM car take a massive step forward. He narrowly missed the postseason, but won the playoff opener at Darlington and finished with 13 top tens, the second most of any non-playoff driver. With the newly rebranded Legacy Motor Co. team, Jones will have a chance to build off of his exciting 2022 season and possibly make a playoff appearance this year.
19. Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing #23)
Daytona 500 Odds: +1800
Championship Odds: +4000
Wallace’s 2022 season started with a runner-up finish in the Daytona 500, the second of his career. That summed up his season in a way; close, but not quite where he needed to be. Wallace couldn’t quite sneak into the playoffs, but put together a pretty strong season, picking up a victory at Kansas and finishing with 10 top ten finishes. With Wallace entering his third season with 23XI, a playoff berth has to be the goal, especially now that he’ll be teammates with a likely playoff lock in Tyler Reddick. If Wallace can grab a win before the playoffs start this season, it wouldn’t be a shock, and it would mark a new milestone in his career.
20. Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing #54)
Daytona 500 Odds: +4000
Championship Odds: +10000
Regardless of the driver, it’s difficult to leave a Joe Gibbs Racing driver outside of the top 20, but when they’re a 20 year old rookie, there’s some growing pains to be expected, which is why Gibbs sits at the rear right now. The talent is undeniable; after all, Gibbs won four Xfinity races as an 18 year old in 2021, and followed that up with a seven win season last year that included an Xfinity Series championship. Like with any rookie, expectations should be somewhat tempered. Gibbs ran 15 Cup races last season as a replacement for Kurt Busch, and recorded just one top ten. That could work in his favor, however, as he’ll enter the year with almost a half season under his belt. The No. 54 will be a car to keep an eye on.
BEST OF THE REST
21. A.J. Allmendinger (Kaulig Racing #16)
D500: +5000 Champ: +10000
22. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing #10)
D500: +4000 Champ: +25000
23. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports #34)
D500: +3500 Champ: +50000
24. Chris Buescher (RFK Racing #17)
D500: +3000 Champ: +10000
25. Justin Haley (Kaulig Racing #31)
D500: +4000 Champ: +25000
26. Brad Keselowski (RFK Racing #6)
D500: +1800 Champ: +6000
27. Ryan Preece (Stewart-Haas Racing #41)
D500: +3000 Champ: +5000
28. Noah Gragson (Legacy Motor Co. #42)
D500: +5000 Champ: +10000
29. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (JTG Daugherty #47)
D500: +3000 Champ: +50000
30. Harrison Burton (Wood Brothers Racing #21)
D500: +7000 Champ: +50000