by Reid Scearce
Daytona Drama: Five Drivers, Three Spots, One Last Chance—Who races into the 2026 Chase in the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale?
As the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the high banks of Daytona International Speedway to end its regular season, the Chase picture is nearly complete with five drivers fighting for three spots in the 16-car field.
Daytona Drama: One Last Chance
Here’s how the points stack up heading into the weekend, per official NASCAR Standings:
14. Bubba Wallace: +75 points
15. Austin Cindric: +44 points
16. Shane van Gisbergen: +31 points
THE CHASE CUTLINE
17. Ryan Preece: -31 points
18. Brad Keselowski: -66 points
Above the Cutline
Bubba Wallace and Austin Cindric can both breathe a little easier. Neither needs to win Saturday night, but both know a poor finish could allow a driver below them in the standings to pass them and race their way into the Chase.
Ahead of Daytona, Trackhouse Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen holds the 16th and final provisional Chase spot. The New Zealander has already secured two wins this season, at Watkins Glen and Sonoma, making the points from those wins especially valuable at this point. Ryan Preece must finish 32 points ahead of van Gisbergen to have any chance of claiming the coveted final spot in the Chase based on points.
Below the Cutline
Preece has had limited control over his Chase hopes since May. NASCAR penalized him with a $50,000 fine and 25 driver points for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs at Texas Motor Speedway. The penalty came as a shock to many, as the contact between Preece and Gibbs was considered minimal by many racing pundits. Without the penalty, Preece would be six points behind van Gisbergen in the Chase. Instead, he finds himself chasing the New Zealander by over 30 points heading into the final week of the regular season at Daytona.
Further complicating the points situation for Preece is the fact that his car was not penalized in the owners’ championship standings. Despite being 31 points behind van Gisbergen in the drivers’ standings, Preece’s No. 60 RFK Racing Ford Mustang is only six points behind the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet Camaro driven by van Gisbergen. A single strong but conservative drive will give the RFK Racing team a chance to get into The Chase over the No. 97, allowing Preece to give his team a chance at the championship, even if he fails to get into The Chase in the drivers’ standings.
For Keselowski, the math is considerably simpler. A 66-point deficit means he needs a perfect race, along with significant help, to keep his Chase hopes alive.
The unpredictable high banks of Daytona International Speedway make it incredibly easy to lose ground, as a multi-car wreck can leave all the potential Chase drivers taking a significant hit. The always-looming threat of “The Big One” forces drivers in “Chase bubble” positions to choose between being out front early to score big points or staying at the back and waiting for the wreck to come to them.
For Preece and Keselowski, the stakes are even higher. Preece has a realistic path to the postseason but must overcome a sizable points deficit, while Keselowski has virtually no room for error.
With the regular season coming down to its final race, all eyes Saturday night will be on the No. 60 and No. 97 as they battle through the unpredictability of the Daytona draft.
