This weekend fans enjoyed fast-paced road course racing at Watkins Glen International and as expected, that created some highs and lows for several drivers chasing a wild-card and a place in the Chase; and now there’s only three events left in the 2013 Race to the Chase. Do you hear the clock ticking? Tick-toc – Tick toc…
This week’s Chase Tracker analyzes the most recent five-race-average-finish – Daytona to Watkins Glen – and variances to the Race to the Chase average-finish – Kentucky to Watkins Glen, while also taking into consideration point standing changes.
Wild Card Contenders
Still up for grabs, the two Wild Card spots are now occupied by expected and unexpected tenants. As indicated last week, Ryan Newman lived up to expectations by taking over Tony Stewart‘s place in the Wild Card chase, with Stewart missing the event at Watkins Glen as he recovers from injuries suffered from his sprint car accident in Iowa. But no one expected the misfortunes of Kasey Kahne at Watkins Glen and his descent out of the top-ten in point standings.
Newman’s 14th-place finish was enough to put him 14th in the point standings and his one win at Indianapolis is just what he needs to take over the second wild card spot. Although, Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon are higher in points at 11th and 13th, neither of them have a win this season, forcing them to keep chasing a Wild Card for the next three events at Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond to have any chance of competing for a title.
Busch still has a potential to rise back into the top-ten Chase qualifiers if he can build some momentum and depending on how other contenders fare, he may need to finish higher than his ninth-place finish at Watkins Glen. But Gordon’s 36th-place finish spells a heart-breaking challenge to recover with no wins and only three races before the Chase begins at Chicagoland. With the window of opportunity quickly closing, can the four-time champion recover as he did last year and grab a Wild Card spot at Richmond? With Busch only two points and Gordon 15 points out of tenth, both want a win and top-five finishes to improve their Chase potential. The good news is that it is ‘possible’ in the next three events. Stay tuned in to find out what happens.
The first Wild Card spot is reluctantly taken by Kasey Kahne after a disappointing 34th place finish this past weekend. While Gordon dropped from ninth to 13th in the standings, Kahne dropped from eighth to 12th, but is only three-points away from a top-ten spot. Unlike, Gordon – with no wins – Kahne’s place in the Chase with two wins, the most of all wild card contenders – is more secure even if he doesn’t make it back to top-ten qualification. It would not be surprising to see Kahne back in the top-ten by next week, leaving a spot for another Wild Card contender.
The other Wild Card contenders include – ranked 15th – 20th-place – Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano, Tony Stewart, Aric Almirola, Paul Menard and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Jeff Burton fell out of the top-20, while Stenhouse takes over the 20th spot. Stewart is the only driver with a win in the group, but is not expected to race at Michigan this weekend. A win or two in the next three races would take any of these drivers a long way toward a Wild Card spot in the post season Chase for a championship. Will any of them rise to the top?
Fading Stars
Two drivers stand out in this category, with disappointing finishes at Watkins Glen. For one, it may be an isolated case, for the other, it may be the continuation of an ill-timed trend. Both illustrate the complexities of chasing a championship.
Starting with the latter, Matt Kenseth‘s finish of 23rd at The Glen, moves his Race to the Chase average finish of 15.50 to a heart-breaking past five-race average finish of 18.4. Yes, his place in the Chase is secure with four wins in the season, but this trend has to change for him to contend for his third championship in 2013; and the clock keeps ticking with three more races before Chicagoland Speedway, the first of ten races in the Chase.
How much difference can one race make? See Dale Earnhardt Jr as a case in point. NASCAR’s most popular driver was one of the ‘brightest stars’ in last week’s Chase Tracker. This week with a finish of 30th at The Glen, his star is now beginning to fade. Although, that finish dropped Dale Jr only one spot from fifth to sixth in the point standings, his five-race-average-finish (Kentucky to Pocono) of 9.0 – third of all drivers – dropped to a 12.6 five-race-average finish (Daytona to Watkins Glen), and now places him sixth of all drivers. Add to the equation that Earnhardt has no wins this season, he can’t afford any more mulligans in the next three events. The good news for Dale Jr, is the next race is at Michigan, where he broke a long-standing winless streak last year.
Rising Stars needing a boost
While The Glen was disappointing for some Chasers, it brought good news for some others. And while good news is good, for some, more improvement needs to happen to truly contend for a championship this year.
Martin Truex Jr was a Wild Card contender last week and now, with an impressive third place finish this past weekend, he now sits tenth in the point standings. With one win, it appears his place in the Chase is a given, even if he falls out of the top-ten sometime during the next three races. And with reseeding at Chicagoland, and if he can stay in the top-ten, that win will certainly give Truex a better spot to start the Chase. But hey, drivers are racing to win a championship….right? Better seeding may not be enough for Truex’s chances to pickup his first championship. The bad news for Truex is his 41st place finish at Daytona, affecting his five-race-average- finish at 17.2, ranking him 15th of all drivers. Looking for a bright spot here, his Race to the Chase average finish is 15.5, ranking him 13th of all drivers for this category. Truex, really needs to improve his five-race-average-finish to seriously contend for the coveted Sprint Cup trophy. He’ll need those cherished top-fives and another win to contend. A third at WGI is certainly moving in the right direction. Let’s watch to see what happens in the next three races.
Greg Biffle, who was teetering in tenth-place last week, was seriously in jeopardy of dropping out of the top-ten. Biffle’s 16th-place finish was enough to move him up one spot in the point standings to ninth and improve his five-race-average-finish of 19.8 last week to 16.2 this week, also improving his ranking among all drivers from 17th to 12th. But seriously speaking, that’s not enough to win a championship, even with his one win, giving him better ranking when the Chase starts. To make history as the only driver bringing home championships in NASCAR’s top-three series, Greg Biffle will have to elevate his performance to top-fives and more wins for the rest of the season.
Twinkling Stars
These drivers are doing well, and a cut above the rest, but they need a little more to compete with the brightest stars. All three are chasing their first championship and will need some improvements to make it happen this season.
Carl Edwards is third in the point standings, with some promising results, including finishing fourth at The Glen. Of the three drivers in this category, his five-race-average finish is the lowest at 13.0 and ranks ninth of all drivers. Barring any misfortune in Michigan, expect his average finish to improve next week as his 29th-place at Daytona drops out of the equation. Edward’s single win, potentially places him fifth when the Chase begins in September and with tough competition out-performing him overall, he’ll need to end his inconsistent results and replace that with top-fives and more wins to join the brightest stars competing for a title.
Kevin Harvick, finished the worst of these three drivers at The Glen, at 13th and is now, the lowest in the point standings at fourth. But of the three, he’s the only one with two wins giving him the advantage in post-season reseeding. Harvick will potentially start the Chase in fourth ahead of Edwards in fifth and Bowyer in eighth. Although Harvick finished third at Daytona and seventh in Loudon, his most recent finishes are some cause for concern leading toward the Chase, with finishes of 19th, 17th and 13th at Indy, Pocono and The Glen. Although he’s headed in the right direction, Harvick will need to improve his current five-race-average-finish of 11.8 – fourth of all drivers – to compete for a championship this season.
Clint Bowyer sits second in the point standings, but will potentially drop to eighth when the Chase begins, because he is also winless for the season. What’s interesting about this particular point is that of these three drivers, Bowyer has the highest five-race-average-finish at 11.4 – fourth among all drivers and just slightly better than Harvick, potentially starting the Chase in fourth with two wins. Bowyer’s situation is a perfect example of how important it is to win races leading into the Chase. Will he win one – or perhaps two – before the Chase begins? Only time will tell…stay tuned.
The Brightest Rising Star
The brightest rising star, and a more positive example of the difference one race can make, last year’s Sprint Cup champion, Brad Keselowski is giving his fans some promising hope for the upcoming Chase competition. Last week, Keselowski was 12th in the point standings, and without a win, did not hold a Wild Card spot. His five-race-average finish was 16.8, placing him 14th among all drivers. With his second-place finish at Watkins Glen, Keselowski took a giant step in the right direction. This week, he sits eighth in the point standings and his five-race-average-finish catapulted to 10.6 – amazingly third among all drivers. Keselowski needs a win to complement his Chase potential and he’d love nothing more than to bring home a win in his home state of Michigan! Definitely one to watch at MIS and beyond.
The Brightest Stars
A lot can happen between now and Homestead-Miami, but at this snap-shot in time, only two shine brighter than the rest and have the best chance at winning the Championship this season.
Establishing himself as the five-time champion’s toughest competition Kyle Busch‘s win at Watkins Glen clearly puts him in the best place to compete for his first title leading into the Chase. Busch’s five-race-average-finish of 6.6 is second among all drivers and four markers away from Keselowski – third among all drivers – at 10.6. Busch is the closest to the five-time champion, who is at 6.0 and leads all drivers in this segment. Busch’s worst finish, since Kentucky is a 12th at Daytona compared to Johnson’s worst finish of 13th at Pocono. But with three wins, Busch now has the potential of starting the Chase second to the leader with four wins. The only thing keeping Kyle Busch from taking over the #1 spot is another win. Can he do it at least once in the next three races? This will be an interesting competition to watch the next three races and beyond.
Jimmie Johnson finished eighth at The Glen, narrowing the gap between him and his closest competition – Kyle Busch – who gained a valuable win this past weekend. At this point in the Race to the Chase, Johnson has the advantage with four wins, over Busch with three wins. But the next three races hold the potential to change Johnson’s advantage, if – and that’s a big IF – Busch can get another win and continues his trend of finishing better than the five-time champion. Including Kentucky, Busch has finished better than Johnson in four of six races – Johnson finished better only at Daytona and Indianapolis with a first and second. Will this rivalry heat up all the way to Homestead-Miami? Again, stay tuned to find out the rest of this story….it’s going to fun!
Watch the next Race to the Chase on ESPN at 1pm Sunday, August 16th at Michigan International Speedway – one of the fastest tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. Then check back next week for the next installment of Chase Tracker.
