Sprint Cup drivers were at one of the fastest tracks on the circuit this weekend at Michigan International Speedway and with lots of action throughout the race, results are mixed for the provisional Chase field.
Once again, Chase Tracker will analyze this week’s five-race average finish – Loudon through Michigan – and the Race to the Chase average finish – Kentucky through Michigan – in addition to changes within the point standings. There are some surprising and even shocking revelations from this week’s analysis.
Wild Card Contenders
Kasey Kahne stays as the first provisional Wild Card holder this week, as Ryan Newman drops out and Martin Truex Jr takes over the second spot.The Wild Card competition continues to heat up and will likely be volatile until the end of the last chance race at Richmond.
Kahne is the only contender in this category with two wins and now sits just four points away from tenth. Barring any misfortune at Bristol, expect him to race his way back into the top-ten. Kahne’s average finish in the Race to the Chase ranks tenth at 14.14, but his last five-race-average-finish ranks better at fourth with 11.2, and includes a 34th-place finish at Watkins Glen. Keep an eye on Kahne especially when the Chase begins at Chicagoland.
Last week, Truex was in the top-ten, but with a 16th-place finish at Michigan and one win for the season, he drops to 12th in the point standings and now holds the second Wild Card spot, just ten points away from tenth. So again, there’s a good chance that Truex will race his way back into a provisional top-ten Chase spot. His five-race-average-finish of 12.2, ranks eighth of all drivers and indicates some improvement over his Race to the Chase average-finish of 15.57, but more top-five finishes will enhance his Chase contention.
A Wild Card contender last week, Newman was 14th in the point standings, and with a 13th-place finish at Michigan, he is now 15th in points without a Wild Card spot. Newman is 11th of all drivers with a five-race-average-finish of 14.20, so again, he needs better finishes and another win would go a long way in getting him back into the game.
Case in point is Joey Logano. With his win at Michigan, he catapulted from 16th, barely hanging on, to 13th in points and now has a good chance at a Wild Card spot into Chase competition. His two 40th-place finishes at Daytona and Loudon don’t help his overall average-finish picture of 15.29; but looking at the last four races, Logano has three-top tens – Indy (8th), with Pocono and The Glen (7th) – and a win at Michigan. His performance improves his five-race-average-finish to 12.6, at ninth-best of all drivers. Keep in mind, that stat includes one of his 40th-place finishes at Loudon. If we look at his four-race average-finish of 5.75, Logano is at the top for all drivers, with his closest competitor being Kurt Busch at 7.25. That my friends, reveals how important it is to win over the next three races. Logano has certainly placed his name into the Chase conversation.
Other Wild Card contenders include, Jeff Gordon (14th), and 16th – 20th, Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, Tony Stewart, Aric Almirola and back into contention is Jeff Burton. With Stewart the only exception, none of these contenders have a win this season. Also, winless is Rookie of the Year contender, Ricky Stenhouse Jr in 21st-place. Outside the top-20 in points at 26th is David Ragan – he is the only driver outside the top-20 with a win. It’s worthy of note because another win in the next three races, could bounce him right into a Wild Card spot.
Fading Stars
Continuing a string of bad finishes is Dale Earnhardt Jr, NASCAR’s most popular driver. It was just two weeks ago that he was one of the top-three Chase contenders, but finishes of 30th at The Glen (wreck) and 36th at Michigan (engine failure), have him moving in the wrong direction heading toward the ten-race Chase. Without a win this season, Earnhardt needs one to give him a better starting place in the Chase. Right now a win could potentially put him at sixth-place, versus an eighth-place starting spot when the Chase begins at Chicagoland. But there’s another rub for Earnhardt and that’s his most recent average-finish performance. In the Race to the Chase his average-finish is 18.61, ranking him 15th and his five-race-average finish is just minutely better at 18.20, ranking him 17th among his fellow competitors. Again, a win would mean a lot to Dale Earnhardt Jr and his team, but he needs at least top-five finishes to turn his team in the right direction at this stage of competition.
There were high hopes for Greg Biffle heading into Michigan, as he was looking for his third consecutive win at the track. Although it was his best performance in the Race to the Chase with a ninth-place finish, that is his only single-digit performance in the same period. His Race to the Chase average-finish is 19.82, ranking him at 17th, while his five-race-average-finish is 14.8, which is 14th among all drivers. So while that seems somewhat promising, it’s not worthy to contend for a title. The bright spot for Biffle is his June win at Michigan will potentially place him in sixth-place at Chicagoland.
Twinkling Stars
With his place secure in the Chase, Matt Kenseth, with four wins will potentially start the Chase in second. He moves up one spot this week from seventh to sixth in the point standings and that’s an improvement over his most recent results. Also, somewhat promising is his 15th-place finish at Michigan is better than his 22nd at Pocono and 23rd at The Glen. Of concern is that since his fourth win of the season at Kentucky, Kenseth’s Race to the Chase average-finish is 17.75 and ranks 14th among his peers. Again, there’s some promise with a five-race-average-finish of 14.8, which ranks slightly better at 13th. But that performance is not Chase worthy of his provisional second-place starting spot. Is Kenseth preparing for Chase competition and allowing his team some time to prepare for competing against the five-time champion? Time will tell the rest of his story…so stay tuned.
Although it seems Kurt Busch is back-and-forth between being in and out of the Chase, he’s certainly stating his case for making history – that is ‘if’ he can keep his top-ten ranking. If he does, he’ll be the first single-car team to contend in the Chase, since the qualifying format began in 2004. There are some promising and somewhat surprising signs for this team with this week’s analysis. The most obvious positive stat is that Busch moved from 11th – out of contention, without a win – to ninth in the point standings. Other good news for this team is that with the top Chase contenders having poor finishes at Michigan, the average-finish since Kentucky is a totally different picture. Busch’s Race to the Chase average-finish is 11.32, which amazingly ranks second. On the other side of the coin is his five-race-average-finish of 12, which ranks seventh among all drivers, but also indicates there are six others ahead of him with better more recent performances. Similar to others, a win would mean a lot for Busch and the next race at Bristol could mean checkers or wreckers for this teeter-totter team.
Michigan Falling Stars
Michigan brought misfortune to the brightest Sprint Cup title contenders making them falling stars in this week’s analysis. Will this mark the exception for them or a turning point in the wrong direction? You might be surprised at what story the stats tell.
Michigan is the only track the five-time champion, Jimmie Johnson, has not won a race and his falling star crashed with an engine failure resulting in a 40th-place finish this weekend. As the only driver making the Chase since it’s start, this is certainly an exceptional experience – in a bad way – for Johnson. At the same time, Johnson will need to do some work to keep this an exception and not a turning-point for the season. Johnson’s Race to the Chase average-finish is now, surprisingly 13.54, ranking him fifth among his peers. But the shockingly bad news is his five-race-average-finish of 13.8, ranks him tenth among all drivers, meaning there are nine others with better performances in the last five races. Johnson’s provisional place in the Chase seems secure at first glance with four wins, but looking to burst that perception is Kyle Busch with three wins. Will he do it in the next three races?
After winning at The Glen, Kyle Busch‘s star fell with a thump, finishing 31st at Michigan. The good news for Busch is that amazingly, his Race to the Chase and five-race-average finishes still rank third among all drivers at 11.64 and 10.4. The bad news is there are two others ranking ahead of him in both categories. With Bristol next on the schedule, Busch is looking to rebound back to the top in a big way.
Four Stars to Watch
With two of the best producing disappointing finishes at Michigan, four drivers are taking advantage of the mis-steps to enhance their Chase contention. Are they building their momentum on the way to Chicagoland?
With two wins for the season and a second-place finish at Michigan, Kevin Harvick is certainly looking pretty good at this point, especially after many thought his team might be lame ducks, in their last season at Richard Childress Racing. But Kevin Harvick and his team would like to end their tenure at RCR with a championship. With that in mind, Harvick has his work cut out for him when looking at his average finish performance compared to his peers. Ranking fourth in his Race to the Chase average-finish of 11.96, it seems his five-race-average-finish of 11. 6 is an improvement. But the bad news for Harvick is that it actually ranks him two markers lower at sixth, among his peers. Harvick needs more top-fives and a win would go a long way for this team in the next three races.
Next up is Clint Bowyer, now second in the point standings, and with a top-five finish at Michigan his outlook is showing some potential. The weakness for Bowyer is that up to this point, he is winless for the season. The good news for Bowyer is that even without a win, he is now ranked first in the Race to the Chase average-finish at 10.89. That’s somewhat shocking, knowing that to win the championship, drivers will need an average-finish closer to the top-five. The bad news for Bowyer is his five-race-average-finish of 11.6 ranks fifth among all drivers, meaning there are four drivers out-performing him in the most recent races. Also, without a win, Bowyer will potentially fall from second to seventh when the Chase begins. Count him in as another driver needing more top-fives and a win in the next three races.
With one win this season, Carl Edwards is now ranked third in the point standings and his tenth-place finish at Michigan complements his fourth-place finish at The Glen. Edwards’ Race to the Chase average-finish is at 15.7, ranking him eighth of all drivers, but the good news is that his five-race-average-finish is in the right direction toward the top. At 9.2, his five-race-average-finish ranks second among his peers giving him a promising outlook for the next three races. Will he keep his momentum going at Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond with more top-fives and maybe a win?
Last year’s Sprint Cup Champion is staking a claim that he’s here to contend for his second championship this season. Although Brad Keselowski is winless for the year and his 12th-place finish at Michigan seems a bit off the mark, he is showing his fans some promising signs for the upcoming Chase. Looking at his Race to the Chase average-finish is somewhat misleading at 15.46, ranking ninth among his peers. But there is some light shining through for Keselowski with a five-race-average-finish of 8.8 ranking him first among all drivers in this category. When the Chase begins Keselowski will potentially drop from his eighth-place points standing to ninth. But with one of his favorite tracks coming up at Bristol this week, it might be foolish to count him out of contending for his next championship and perhaps his first win of the season. Will Keselowski keep his championship hopes alive over the next three races? In time, we’ll know the rest of this story too!
Next up is Bristol Motor Speedway for some Saturday night racing under the lights. Television coverage on ABC begins at 7:30pm ET, Saturday, August, 24th.
