NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Next Race: Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500
The Place: Phoenix International Raceway
The Date: Sunday, Nov. 15
The Time: 2:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBC, 2 p.m. (ET)
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM Ch. 90
Distance: 312 miles (312 laps)
Party of Five: Harvick Goes for Fifth Straight Win at Phoenix
Pretty much automatic at Phoenix International Raceway, Kevin Harvick will go for his fifth straight win at the one-mile track in Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cutoff race. With a visit to Victory Lane on Sunday, Harvick would join NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty (Richmond, 7) and Darrell Waltrip (Bristol, 7; North Wilkesboro, 5) as the only drivers to win at least five consecutive races at a single track.
Currently third on the Chase Grid, ten points above the cutoff line, Harvick is trying to advance to the four-driver Championship Round race at Homestead-Miami Speedway to defend his 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title. Regardless of how the rest of the field performs at Phoenix, Harvick can clinch a Championship Round berth with a finish of second or better; third and at least one lap led; or fourth and the most laps led.
Harvick owns a track-record seven wins at Phoenix. He has the second-best average finish (11.0), driver rating (108.3), average running position (9.4) and average green flag speed (126.523 mph) at the Arizona oval.
Click here for an infographic on the Chase drivers’ top performances at Phoenix.
Johnson Plays Spoiler at Texas, Approaches Earnhardt on All-Time Wins List
Jimmie Johnson passed Brad Keselowski with four laps remaining in Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 to win his third consecutive race at Texas Motor Speedway and block an automatic qualifying berth in the Championship Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup from one of the Eliminator 8 drivers. The win was the fifth of the season for Johnson and the 75th of his career. He now trails NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt by just one victory for seventh on NASCAR’s all-time wins list.
Johnson will attempt to play spoiler again this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway where he owns four wins, 14 top-fives and 18 top-tens in 24 starts.
The No. 48 Chevrolet driver is not the only one who can ruin a Chase-eligible driver’s day in Arizona. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2 wins), Denny Hamlin (1), Kasey Kahne (1), Ryan Newman (1) and Tony Stewart (1) are all non-Chase drivers who have won at Phoenix. Jeff Gordon, a two-time Phoenix winner who has already advanced to the Championship Round via his victory at Martinsville, can also block a transfer spot by taking the checkered flag on Sunday.
Championship Round Clinch Scenarios
Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway marks the last race of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup’s Eliminator Round. When the race ends, the four Chase drivers who are winless in the Eliminator Round and have the least amount of points will drop from the Chase. The remaining four drivers will make the Championship Round race held on Sunday, Nov. 22 at Homestead-Miami Speedway where the highest Chase-eligible finisher will take home the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.
Jeff Gordon is the only driver who has clinched a Championship Round spot so far.
Regardless of the finish of any other driver…
Kyle Busch will clinch with a finish of third or better; fourth and at least one lap led; or fifth and most laps led.
Kevin Harvick will clinch with a finish of second or better; third and at least one lap led; or fourth and most laps led.
Martin Truex Jr., Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch and Joey Logano only control their own destiny with a victory. Logano can ONLY make it to the Championship Round with a win at Phoenix.
Click here for an infographic highlighting the bottom four Chase drivers’ at Phoenix
Keselowski Sets Sights on Phoenix after Coming Up Short at Texas
Statistically speaking, Brad Keselowski could not have raced any better in Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway without winning it. He posted the highest possible driver rating (145.0) a competitor can earn without winning a race. The only other time it’s happened since 2005 was when Kyle Busch achieved the feat when he finished second at Bristol on Aug. 23, 2008.
Keselowski led 312-of-334 laps at Texas, but could not hold on, finishing runner-up to Jimmie Johnson, who passed him with four laps remaining. A win would’ve earned Keselowski an automatic berth in the Championship Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, but instead he sits in sixth on the Chase Grid, 19 points below Martin Truex Jr. on the cutoff line.
The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion gets one more shot at reaching the Championship Round in Sunday’s Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. In 12 starts at the Arizona oval, Keselowski has four top-five and six top-ten finishes with one Coors Light Pole Award (March 2, 2014). He has placed sixth or better in six of the last seven races held at Phoenix with a high finish of third (March 2, 2014).
Logano’s Last Shot
Needing a win on Sunday to make the Championship Round, can Joey Logano rise at Phoenix?
Maybe.
In 13 starts at the one-mile track, Logano claims two top-fives and seven top-tens, including four top-tens in the last four races there.
Despite racking up top-tens at Phoenix, he has never won there. That likely isn’t a concern to Logano, who has visited Victory Lane at four tracks this year where he had never won before: Daytona, Watkins Glen, Charlotte and Talladega.
Truex “Home(stead) Free” If He Advances through Phoenix
Keeping his dream season alive heading into the next to the last race of 2015 at Phoenix, Martin Truex Jr. now sits in the last Championship Round qualifying position on the Chase Grid, seven points above the cutoff line.
In 19 starts at Phoenix, Truex claims one top-five and seven top-tens. He finished seventh at the one-mile track in March.
Historically, Truex ranks lowest among The Eliminator 8 at Phoenix in average finish (17.1) and driver rating (80.1), but this is a new year where the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing driver has set career highs in top-fives (8) and top-tens (22).
If Truex can make it out of Phoenix and into the Championship Round, he is one of the best Chase-eligible drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway where he has three top-fives, seven top-tens and 108 laps led in ten starts. Among The Eliminator 8 at Homestead, Truex boasts the second-highest driver rating (106.6) and third-best average finish (10.0). His track history combined with the speed he’s found this season would give him as good of a shot at the championship as anyone.
Kurt Busch Tries to Back Up Brother’s Prediction in Desert
Prior to the Eliminator Round, Kyle Busch adamantly stated the only drivers with a chance to win at Phoenix were Kevin Harvick and his brother Kurt Busch.
Currently seventh on the Chase Grid, 28 points below Martin Truex Jr. on the cutoff line, Kurt Busch essentially can only advance to the Championship Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup by winning Sunday’s race at Phoenix where he finished fifth earlier this season.
In 25 starts at the Arizona oval, Busch has one win (April 23, 2005), six top-fives and 14 top-tens. His overall body of work at Phoenix is strong, but he has finished worse than 20th there three times in eight starts since the 2011 repave.
Busch is enjoying his best season since 2009 when he finished fourth in the Sprint Cup Series standings. His two wins and 19 top-tens this year are his most since 2009 when he notched two wins along with 21 top-tens.
Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch Lead Joe Gibbs Racing to Phoenix
Joe Gibbs Racing may not have been able to make its goal of putting all four of its drivers in the Championship Round of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, but it has a good chance at getting two in. Heading into Sunday’s race at Phoenix, Kyle Busch – 11 points above the cutoff line – ranks second on the Chase Grid, while Carl Edwards – 7 points below the cutoff line sits in sixth.
Regardless of what happens with other drivers, Busch will clinch a Championship Round spot with a finish of third or better; fourth and at least one lap led; or fifth and the most laps led. Edwards can only control his own destiny with a win.
Busch has one win, three top-fives, 12 to-tens and two Coors Light Pole Awards in 20 Phoenix starts.
Edwards boasts two wins, seven top-fives, 12 top-tens and three Coors Light Poles in 22 Phoenix starts.
By advancing to the Championship Round, Busch would be guaranteed to at least tie his career-best fourth-place final standings finish achieved in 2013.
Busch (four wins) and Edwards (two wins) have helped Joe Gibbs Racing tally 13 victories this season – the most in the organization’s history.
Chevrolet Looking to Take Manufacturers’ Title
If the top-finishing Chevrolet at Phoenix places tenth or better, the company will capture its 13th consecutive manufacturers’ championship and the 39th in its history.
Triple Header for Jones
Erik Jones will pilot the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota for the second straight weekend. He has won at Phoenix in both of his Camping World Truck Series starts there. In two XFINITY Series starts at Phoenix, Jones has finished fifth and sixth.