NASCAR Sprint Cup Series teams will race 400 miles in 400 laps in the Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway on Sunday, October 2nd at 2 pm ET. Television coverage is on NBC Sports Network with radio coverage on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, channel 90.

What to Watch For: Sunday marks the cutoff race for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup’s Round of 16. Right now, Jamie McMurray (five points below Kyle Larson on the cutoff line), Austin Dillon (-5), Tony Stewart (-11) and Chris Buescher (-30) will all be eliminated from the Chase if they can’t improve their positions.

Kevin Harvick goes for his second straight win after visiting Victory Lane at New Hampshire. He is the defending fall Dover winner.

Spring Dover winner Matt Kenseth attempts the season track sweep this weekend. No driver has won twice at a single track this year.

Jimmie Johnson holds the Dover track record with ten wins. Last season, he was knocked out of the Chase at the Monster Mile after he broke a rear axle seal on his car.

Crowded Chase Bubble Heading into Dover

The drivers on the Chase bubble must deliver in Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 cutoff race at Dover International Speedway (2 p.m. ET on NBCSN) or they’ll be eliminated from NASCAR’s playoffs.

Kyle Larson holds the final transfer spot by five points over his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Jamie McMurray and Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon. He is also trailed by Tony Stewart (-11) and Chris Buescher (-30).

The rest of the Chase drivers without wins in the Round of 16 have cushier leads over McMurray on the cutoff, but still have not clinched: Brad Keselowski (+35), Kyle Busch (+33), Matt Kenseth (+16), Joey Logano (+21), Denny Hamlin (+19), Jimmie Johnson (+18), Chase Elliott (+16), Carl Edwards (+16) and Kurt Busch (+15).

Larson finished second at Dover in the spring and should be a contender to win on Sunday. Buescher finished 18th, McMurray placed 21st, Dillon came in 33rd and Stewart produced a showing of 34th.

In five career starts at Dover, Larson has logged two top-five and four top-ten finishes for an average showing of 6.2.

Stewart has won at the Monster Mile three times in his career. He also has 11 top-fives, 17 top-tens and an average finish of 14.1 in 34 starts there. Stewart last won at Dover in Spring of 2013.

Last season, McMurray was bumped from the Chase at Dover after finishing fourth. Dale Earnhardt Jr. passed McMurray late in the race to tie him in points for the final transfer spot. Earnhardt earned advancement because his high showing of third in the Round of 16 was better than McMurray’s top finish of fourth. In 27 career starts at the Monster Mile, McMurray has two top-fives seven top-tenss and an average finish of 17.4.

Buescher essentially needs to win to on Sunday to advance to the Round of 12. He has only made one Sprint Cup start at Dover (the 18th-place finish earlier this year), but won at the one-mile track in the NASCAR XFINITY Series last season.

Anything can happen in a cutoff race. Last year, Jimmie Johnson, who owns a Dover track-record 10 wins, came into the event with a 27-point edge above the cutoff. He broke a rear axle seal – a part that retails for $5 – forcing him to finish 41st and eliminating him from the Chase.

Click Here For An Infographic On The Chase Bubble Drivers 

Dover Clinch Scenarios

Below are the clinch scenarios for Sunday’s Chase cutoff race at Dover International Speedway:

Possible to Clinch:

• Brad Keselowski (0 Wins, 2087 Points) – Would clinch on points with 12 Points (29th and no laps led, 30th and led at least one lap, 31st and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 7 Points (34th and no laps led, 35th and led at least one lap, 36th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Kyle Busch (0 Wins, 2085 Points) – Would clinch on points with 14 Points (27th and no laps led, 28th and led at least one lap, 29th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 9 Points (32nd and no laps led, 33rd and led at least one lap, 34th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Matt Kenseth (0 Wins, 2078 Points) – Would clinch on points with 20 Points (21st and no laps led, 22nd and led at least one lap, 23rd and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 15 Points (26th and no laps led, 27th and led at least one lap, 28th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Joey Logano (0 Wins, 2073 Points) – Would clinch on points with 26 Points (15th and no laps led, 16th and led at least one lap, 17th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 21 Points (20th and no laps led, 21st and led at least one lap, 22nd and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Denny Hamlin (0 Wins, 2071 Points) – Would clinch on points with 28 Points (13th and no laps led, 14th and led at least one lap, 15th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 23 Points (18th and no laps led, 19th and led at least one lap, 20th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Jimmie Johnson (0 Wins, 2070 Points) – Would clinch on points with 29 Points (12th and no laps led, 13th and led at least one lap, 14th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 24 Points (17th and no laps led, 18th and led at least one lap, 19th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Chase Elliott (0 Wins, 2068 Points) – Would clinch on points with 31 Points (10th and no laps led, 11th and led at least one lap, 12th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 26 Points (15th and no laps led, 16th and led at least one lap, 17th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Carl Edwards (0 Wins, 2068 Points) – Would clinch on points with 31 Points (10th and no laps led, 11th and led at least one lap, 12th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 26 Points (15th and no laps led, 16th and led at least one lap, 17th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Kurt Busch (0 Wins, 2067 Points) – Would clinch on points with 32 Points (9th and no laps led, 10th and led at least one lap, 11th and led most laps) and a new winner.  If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 27 Points (14th and no laps led, 15th and led at least one lap, 16th and led most laps).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.
• Kyle Larson (0 Wins, 2057 Points) – If there is a repeat winner, he would clinch on points with 37 Points (4th and no laps led, 5th and led at least one lap, 6th and most laps led).  With a win, he would clinch a next round spot on wins.  Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

For the following, the only guaranteed clinch would be with a win. Each could clinch without a win, but would need varying levels of help, however:

• Jamie McMurray (0 Wins, 2052 Points)
• Austin Dillon (0 Wins, 2052 Points)
• Tony Stewart (0 Wins, 2046 Points)
• Chris Buescher (0 Wins, 2027 Points) 

Harvick Advances to Round of 12 for Third Straight Season

Performing under pressure has become routine for Kevin Harvick.

After digging himself into a hole for the third consecutive Chase by running poorly at Chicagoland, Harvick climbed out of it once again by winning Sunday’s Bad Boy Off Road 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

The No. 4 Chevrolet driver charged to the front from the 20th starting spot at an oval notorious for rewarding track position. He blazed by leader Matt Kenseth on the final restart of the race and led the last three laps for his NASCAR Sprint Cup Series-best-tying (Joey Logano) fifth victory under the new “win and you’re in” Chase format implemented in 2014.

The triumph was Harvick’s 11th for Stewart-Haas Racing in his 100th start with the organization he joined in 2014 when he won his first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title.

Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are the two drivers who have transferred to the Round of 12 so far via victories.

Truex hitting groove at right time

Martin Truex Jr. picked the right time of the season to up his performance.

Since finishing 20th at Michigan, the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing driver has logged four consecutive top-seven finishes, including two wins (Darlington, Chicago) and a third-place result (Richmond).

Truex, who led a race-high 141 laps at New Hampshire, was unable to pass the leader Matt Kenseth in the late stages of the race, wore out his tires, and finished seventh. Still, he transferred to the Chase via his victory at Chicagoland, so he was only racing for a win to block another driver’s advancement.

The Mayetta, New Jersey native heads next to his home track – Dover International Speedway – the site of his first career win and place where he finished ninth in the spring.

Kenseth Hopes to Slay Monster Mile for Second Straight Race

Matt Kenseth failed to win his third straight race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, following a valiant effort that produced a runner-up showing. He’ll get a chance at redemption in Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400 at Dover International Speedway where he won in the spring.

At 16 points ahead of Jamie McMurray on the cutoff line, Kenseth can clinch a berth in the Round of 12 without help by finishing 27th with no laps led, 28th with at least one lap led, and 29th with the most laps led if there’s a new winner. If there’s no new winner, Kenseth can clinch by earning 15 points (26th and no laps led, 27th and led at least one lap, 28th and led most laps).

In 34 starts at Dover, Kenseth claims two wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s and a 14.0 average finish.

Dover Domination: Jimmie Johnson is the Real Monster in Delaware’s Capital

Are we sure Dover International Speedway mascot “Miles The Monster” really isn’t Jimmie Johnson in disguise?

The No. 48 Chevrolet driver terrorizes the competition on the track like no other, holding its records in wins (10). He also boasts 15 top fives, 20 top 10s and an average finish of 9.6 in 29 starts there.

Johnson has upped his performance since the Chase started. He placed eighth last weekend at New Hampshire and finished 12th at Chicagoland after leading a race-high 118 laps.

Johnson is attempting to tie NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships record with seven.

Edwards Grabs Six Pack – With his sixth pole of the year at New Hampshire last weekend, Edwards won the Coors Light 6-Pack Award, worth $25,000 to the charity of the driver’s choice. “Half of it’s going to Speedway Children’s Charities and half to the NASCAR Foundation in honor of Betty Jane France,” Edwards said. “It’s really cool of MillerCoors to do that. It’s going to help a lot of people.”