Matt Kenseth, the driver of the #20 Circle K Toyota, looks on during qualifying for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400 presented by Advance Auto Parts at Kentucky Speedway on July 7, 2017, in Sparta, Kentucky. Photo – Sarah Crabill/Getty Images
With only eight races left until the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begin, some teams are starting to feel more pressure of the playoff bubble that is about to burst.
Since NASCAR changed to a 16-team playoff format in 2013, the highest number of drivers to qualify by winning is 13 with the same number of winners in 2016. There’s been excitement and anticipation of possibly breaking that record this year with 11 different winners in 18 races so far, and although the possibility still exists, it’s becoming more doubtful.
Remember, Joey Logano’s win doesn’t automatically qualify him for the playoffs because, with a post-race infraction, NASCAR has encumbered that victory. So he still needs another victory to secure his place in the playoffs.
With that in mind, there are some top drivers with multiple wins that could win again or ones that are knocking on the door, ready to pick up their first win of the year. At the same time, there are other competitors yet to win and secure a playoff spot. These drivers are sweating out the next two hot summer months until they lock themselves into the playoffs with a victory.
Playoff Bubble Prediction of those IN
Kyle Busch – At 138 points above the cutoff line, it’s unbelievable that none of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have won a race this year but Busch has come the closest. His team is too good to continue without winning. Often running in the top-five or better has left Busch just short of getting a victory. But keep in mind, Busch has won at seven of the next eight tracks, so it’s possible he’ll win sooner than later. Also in his favor is his points cushion to fall back on, if necessary.
Chase Elliot – At 89 points above the cutoff line, he is on the verge of winning at any race but so far this season, securing that victory has been elusive. Elliot could pick up a win but his strength over the past two years of having solid top-five and top-ten runs consistently may mean he’ll make it into the playoffs based on points instead.
Jamie McMurray – At 74 points above the cutoff line, he is trying to keep pace with teammate Kyle Larson but is coming up a little short. The team and their cars are showing vast improvement over the last couple of years, but McMurray hasn’t shown he can win on any given race day. Although a win is not in his favor, his performance will secure his place in the playoffs based on points.
Denny Hamlin – At 67 points above the cutoff line, he’s another driver mired in the Joe Gibbs Racing slump. But like Kyle Busch, he’s won on seven of the next eight tracks, so Hamlin has a slightly better chance of picking up a victory, but without a win, he can still make the playoffs based on points.
Clint Bowyer – At 24 points above the cutoff line and with a tremendous rebound from last year, he’s shown that he can still drive a race car. Bowyer filled a retired Tony Stewart’s empty seat pretty well, finishing second in back-to-back weeks and closing in on a win. He has won on two of the next eight tracks plus he always runs well on road courses, giving his team some hope in building his points position. This means Bowyer could be in based on points with a slight possibility of clicking off a win.
Matt Kenseth – At seven points above the cutoff line, he’s now auditioning for a new ride next season. Kenseth could come on strong, but he’ll need to stay away from over driving his car and messing up his consistency of running around the top-ten. That puts him in the playoffs on points with high hopes of getting a win to impress a potential new team.
Joey Logano – At seven points below the cutoff line and after the penalty at Richmond negated his playoff qualifying win, the smart money is on him using that as inspiration to win a couple more races and secure his playoff spot. He could pick up a win this weekend at New Hampshire, one of his favorite tracks.
Playoff Bubble Prediction of those OUT
Clint Bower – He’ll be out of the playoffs if someone new below him wins a race and he doesn’t.
Matt Kenseth – The same as Bowyer, he’ll be out of the playoffs if someone new below him wins a race and he doesn’t.
Joey Logano – He’ll be out of the playoffs without another win. The team has displayed too much inconsistency lately and Matt Kenseth is one of the best at consistently finishing well to gain more points, thus out-dueling Joey Logano overall.
Erik Jones – Jones is now 52 points below the cutoff line and is able to run in the top-five when given a fast, quality car. Expect him to follow teammates to victory once Joe Gibbs Racing returns to winning form. Jones has a slight possibility of making it into the playoffs with a win or on points if the drivers above him stumble with a bad week or two but won’t make it to the playoffs without the help of others.
Daniel Suarez – At 105 points below the cutoff line, he has shown steady improvement every week and hangs around the top-ten consistently. But don’t expect him to gain more until Joe Gibbs Racing improves its overall program. His teammates will likely win before he does and although he will become a force to reckon with in the future, there’s a good chance he won’t make it in the playoffs this year.
Trevor Bayne – At 126 points below the cutoff line, he started the year out strong alongside teammate Ricky Stenhouse, Jr but hasn’t quite flourished in the same way. While continuously having too many on-track incidents either caused by himself or by being involved, It seems Bayne is typically in the wrong place at the wrong time. That makes it hard for him to make the playoffs this season.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr – At 146 points below the cutoff line, his less than stellar runs overshadow a couple of good runs this year. Earnhardt has won on four of the next eight tracks so it’s possible he’ll find a way to victory lane. Unfortunately, the overall performance of the team will make it harder for Earnhardt to find victory lane this season. The Most Popular Driver title won’t help in this case, and only a win will turn his season around. Without a win, he’ll be out of the playoffs.
Those outside the top-20 are in the same boat of win or go home.
There are two drivers who could pull off a victory, such as AJ Allmendinger on the Watkins Glen road course or Kasey Kahne at any of the four tracks of the next eight where he’s won. Both teams will need their crew to hit the setup perfectly, with no mistakes on race day.
Then there is always the wild card scenario where any driver can get an unexpected victory with fuel mileage, pit strategy, or even luck on their side. It has happened before, and with that scenario, the playoff bubble will burst immediately for some other drivers.
The bottom line is that drivers on the playoff bubble are hoping that if they don’t win, it’s the repeat winners that will keep their playoff bubble from bursting.