NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Next Race: CampingWorld.com 500
The Place: Talladega Superspeedway
The Date: Sunday, Oct. 25
The Time: 2:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBCSN, 2 p.m. (ET)
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM Ch. 90
Distance: 500.08 miles (188 laps)
Logano Locked-in on NASCAR’s Biggest Stage
If the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup is a stage, then Joey Logano is its leading man.
Logano has proven ‘the moment’ isn’t too big for him.
A year after posting the best average finish during the 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup (6.4), Logano has won the first two races of the 2015 Contender Round and is the only driver guaranteed to advance to the Eliminator 8 Round heading into Sunday’s CampingWorld.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. His average finish in the Chase this year – 4.2. For context, the best average finish through an entire Chase was Carl Edwards’ 4.9, set during the last ten races of 2011.
On the season, Logano has tied his career-best total in wins and has set career highs in top-fives with 19, top-tens with 25 and Coors Light Pole Awards with five. His win at Kansas marked the first time in his career he’s recorded consecutive victories.
Logano noted how nice it is to relax going into Talladega, but the next round presents challenges.
“I look at these last two races, and we can’t be too proud of ourselves as far as – this is two tracks that are very similar,” Logano said. “So we had two very fast race cars at very similar race tracks, but if I look at the next round, you’ve got Martinsville, way different; you’ve got Texas, it’s similar but quite a bit different than what we have here; and obviously Phoenix.”
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – The Talladega Tornado
No one whips a car around Talladega faster than Dale Earnhardt Jr.
That’s good news, considering the precarious position in which he now finds himself. He heads to the 2.66-mile behemoth in a win-or-go-home conundrum as he sits 11th on the Chase Grid – a near-impossible-to-erase 31 points below the cutoff line.
Earnhardt ranks tied with Jeff Gordon for the active wins lead at the Alabama track with six checkered flags, and has won two of the three previous restrictor-plate races this season, including the May competition at Talladega. A visit to Victory Lane on Sunday would make him the first driver to win three restrictor-plate races since his father Dale Earnhardt accomplished the feat in 1990.
At Talladega, the No. 88 Chevrolet driver owns the Sprint Cup Series’ best driver rating (92.8) and second-best average running position (13.956).
“I wouldn’t rather be going anywhere else than Talladega for the next race if we need a win, Earnhardt said. “That is a good opportunity for us. Even over Daytona, I think we can go to Talladega and do the job. There is a little more room there to be aggressive and make the moves you need to make. I got the car. That car won the 125 (Budweiser Duel), ran third in the (Daytona) 500 and won Talladega and won Daytona. That is a good enough car. I wouldn’t want to be going anywhere else if it’s a win and you are in kind of deal.”
Down But Not Out: Kenseth in Dire Need of a Win at ’Dega
In the Challenger Round, No. 1 seed/four-race winner Jimmie Johnson learned this Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup format can swallow you up and spit you out whole in a heartbeat.
The Chase’s No. 2 seed, Matt Kenseth, is learning the same lesson in the Contender Round.
Although Kenseth ranks tied for the Sprint Cup Series lead with five wins, he is now last on the Chase Grid, 35 points below the cutoff line and needs a win in Sunday’s CampingWorld.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway to advance to the Eliminator 8 Round.
In the first two races of the Contender Round Kenseth has more than his share of misfortune. At Charlotte, he won the pole, but wrecked out of the race after leading 72 laps. At Kansas, a bump by Joey Logano tossed him into a spin after leading a race-high 153 laps.
In 31 starts at Talladega, Kenseth has one win in the fall of 2012, six top-fives, ten top-tens and an average finish of 19.9.
Talladega ‘Knight’: Keselowski Goes for Another Big Win in ‘Bama
Brad Keselowski provided one of the highlights of the 2014 Sprint Cup Series season in the fall Talladega Contender Round cutoff race, seizing the lead from Ryan Newman on a green-white-checkered restart and holding off a swarm of challengers on his way to victory lane in a must-win situation.
Keselowski will attempt to defend his victory in Sunday’s CampingWorld.com 500 at the Alabama track. Fortunately for him, he sits seventh on the Chase Grid now, seven points ahead of the cutoff line, and doesn’t have to win. Still, if Keselowski can’t keep his car clean at Talladega, he runs the risk of falling out of the Chase as one of the four winless drivers lowest in points in the Contender Round.
All three of Keselowski’s wins at Talladega have been big. He won his first career race at Talladega in spring of 2009 as a complete dark horse running for James Finch. Keselowski also took the checkered flag at ‘Dega in the spring of his 2012 Sprint Cup Series championship season.
No Points Position Safe at ‘Dega
Sitting second on the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Grid, 18 points above of the cutoff line, Denny Hamlin appears safe to transfer to the Eliminator 8 Round following Sunday’s CampingWorld.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
His teammate Kyle Busch would be quick to tell him otherwise. Busch entered last season’s Talladega fall race 26 points above the cutoff line, able to control his destiny with a 24th-place finish. Busch couldn’t avoid a wreck, placed 40th and missed the cutoff by seven points.
The only safe driver is Joey Logano, who won at Charlotte to advance to the Eliminator 8 Round and visited Victory Lane for the second consecutive week at Kansas to block the second automatic transfer spot.
Busch, Newman Can Make Eliminator 8 Round on Points
Winning is the most stress-free way to advance in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, but drivers can also earn transfer spots on points. Kyle Busch (6 points below the cutoff line) and Ryan Newman (-8), currently ninth and tenth on the Chase Grid, respectively, can advance to the Eliminator 8 Round with strong finishes and a bit of luck.
In 20 Talladega starts, Busch claims one win in spring of 2008, four top-fives, five top-tens and an average finish of 21.7. He has placed in the top-five in three of his last six starts at the superspeedway.
Newman has yet to win in his 27 starts at Talladega. He claims two top-fives, 11 top-tens and an average finish of 20.4 there. ‘Rocket Man’ has notched three top-ten finishes in his last four starts at Talladega.
Eliminator Round Clinch Scenarios
As outlined above, nothing is a given when it comes to Talladega. Having said all that, if the following drivers have the finishes below, they are assured a spot in the next round – regardless of the finishes of any other driver.
Denny Hamlin: 14th and no laps led; 15th and at least one lap led; 16th and most laps led
Kurt Busch: Eighth and no laps led; ninth and at least one lap led; tenth and most laps led
Carl Edwards: Seventh and no laps led; eighth and at least one lap led; ninth and most laps led
Kevin Harvick: Third and no laps led; fourth with a lap led
Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski: Second or better; third and at least one lap led; fourth and most laps led
Martin Truex Jr.: Second and no laps led; third and the most laps led
Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth only control their own destiny with a win.