Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Apache Warrior 400 at Dover Preview

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series travels to Dover International Speedway Sunday, October 1st  for the Round of 16 Playoffs cutoff race – the Apache Warrior 400 presented by Lucas Oil at 2 pm ET. Coverage begins at 1:30 pm ET on NBC Sports Network with radio coverage on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

Drivers will race 400 miles over 400 laps with Stage 1 ending on lap 120, Stage 2 on lap 240, and the last Stage ending on the last lap 400.

Short Strokes: Led by three-time Dover winner Matt Kenseth at 162.550 mph, Playoff drivers claimed the first nine positions on the speed chart in opening Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice at the Monster Mile. In his final season at Joe Gibbs Racing, Kenseth is still looking for a ride for 2018.

For the first time in the Playoffs, but to the surprise of no one, Jimmie Johnson showed up with some speed, posting the third fastest lap (162.023 mph) in opening practice behind Kenseth and Kyle Larson. The seven-time series champion hopes to add to his record 11 victories at the one-mile concrete track.

Kevin Harvick paced Saturday’s first Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice with the only sub-23-second lap of the session (22.998 seconds at 156.535 mph). Dale Earnhardt Jr., who qualified seventh on Friday, was second on the speed chart at 156.413 mph. Last week’s New Hampshire winner, Kyle Busch, had the fastest average speed for a run of 10 consecutive laps, running 155.165 mph to edge fellow Playoff driver Jamie McMurray (154. 860 mph).

Title contenders occupied the top nine spots in final practice for Sunday’s Apache Warrior 400 at Dover, with Hendrick Motorsports drivers Chase Elliott (157.363 mph) and Jimmie Johnson (156.904 mph) leading the way. Harvick was third fastest at 156.897 mph, followed by Kyle Larson at 156.658 mph.

What To Watch For: The four lowest winless drivers in points will drop from the Cup Series Playoffs after Sunday’s race at Dover.

Jimmie Johnson attempts to add to his series-best 11 Dover wins as he chases his eighth championship.

Martin Truex Jr. tries to defend his 2016 Playoff victory at the Monster Mile.

Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne are 17 and 21 points below the cutoff line, for advancement to the Cup Series Playoffs Round of 16 and can still advance on points, but likely need a win at Dover to advance in the postseason.

Cup Series Heads to Dover for Playoff Cutoff Race

The lowest four drivers in points without a win in the Round of 16 will face elimination after the Dover race.

Here’s how the leaderboard looks entering the race:

Four drivers have clinched a spot in the Round of 12: Martin Truex Jr. (clinched with a Chicagoland win), Kyle Larson (clinched on points at New Hampshire), Kyle Busch (clinched with a win at New Hampshire, and Brad Keselowski (clinched with points at New Hampshire).

Truex is the defending race winner at Dover, while Jimmie Johnson won the June race at the Monster Mile.

No non-Playoff driver has ever won a postseason race at Dover.

Jimmie Johnson Attempts to Add to Dover Track Record with 12th Win

Jimmie Johnson will attempt to defend his June Dover victory and add to his track victories record with a 12th checkered flag on Sunday. But more importantly, a win will advance Johnson to the Round of 12 in the Cup Series Playoffs as he chases another record – eight championships.

If Johnson wins this weekend, he will join NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip as the only three Cup Series drivers to win 12 or more races at a single track. Petty did it three times (Martinsville – 15 wins, North Wilkesboro – 15 and Richmond – 13), while Waltrip did it once (Bristol – 12 wins).

In 31 starts at Dover, Johnson boasts 11 wins, 16 top-fives, 22 top-tens and a 9.3 average finish. His 7.7 average running position and 118.3 driver rating rank at the top of the Monster Mile statistical lists among active drivers.

The No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet driver sits seventh on the Playoff Grid, 32 points ahead of Austin Dillon on the cutoff line for a spot in the Monster Energy NASCAR Playoffs Round of 12.

Johnson finished 14th at New Hampshire last weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. Tries to Defend Playoff Victory at Home Track

Martin Truex Jr. has already clinched a spot in the Cup Series Playoffs Round of 12 via his win at Chicagoland. Still, he’d like to defend his Dover Playoff victory from last season. Truex, from nearby Mayetta, New Jersey, would like to win again in front of his hometown fans and add five more playoff points to his series-leading total of 59.

The No. 78 Furniture Row Racing driver won his first career race at Dover in 2007. In 23 career starts at the Monster Mile, he has two wins, three top-fives, 12 top-tens and a 13.7 average finish. He placed third at the one-mile track in June after leading 102 laps.

Truex leads the Cup Series in wins (five), top-tens (19), stage wins (19), playoff points (59), average finish (10.5), average running position (7.7), fastest laps (1,169, 17.3%), laps led (2,068, 25.4%) and driver rating (112.4). 

Austin Dillon vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. vs. Ryan Newman

With the lowest four winless drivers in points falling out of the playoffs following Sunday’s Apache Warrior 400, one of the biggest parts of the event will be the races within the race.

Right now, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. owns the last transfer spot. He’s tied with Austin Dillon in points, but holds the tiebreaker with a better high Round of 16 finish – 15th at New Hampshire compared to Dillon’s 16th at Chicagoland.

Ryan Newman trails Stenhouse and Dillon by a mere one point. We’ve seen what Newman can do when it comes to tight points racing. In 2014, he bumped Kyle Larson on the last lap at Phoenix to gain an extra point to make the Championship 4. Newman finished second in the last championship standings that season without winning a race.

Both Dillon and Stenhouse have career-high finishes of eighth at Dover. Otherwise, neither driver has a top-ten there.

Newman might be in the best position of the three drivers. In 31 starts at Dover, he owns three wins, seven top-fives, 14 top-tens and a 13.6 average finish. He placed fourth at the Monster Mile in June.

With points at a premium, plan on all three drivers to push the envelope during every stage instead of sitting back to try to get a strong last finish.

Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne Could Use a Win at Dover

Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne, 17 and 21 points below the cutoff line, respectively, for advancement to the Cup Series Playoffs Round of 16, can still advance on points, but likely need a win at Dover to advance in the postseason.

Busch won at Dover in 2011 but has only one top-ten finish at the Monster Mile since then.

Kahne has never won at Dover but has three top-fives and eight top-tens in 27 starts there. He has finished sixth or better in three of his last five races at the one-mile track.