This is not March, so we’re not talking about college basketball. This is NASCAR playoff time with one Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series round already in the record books. For the most part, the first round played out as expected based on the regular season, with one or two possible exceptions.
From this point, it could get a little tougher to predict the outcome. Most everyone agrees that through 29 Cup races thus far, three dominate, front-running cars stand out consistently. The No. 78 of Martin Truex, Jr., the No. 18 of Kyle Busch, and the No. 42 of Kyle Larson. Barring any unusual circumstances, these drivers are already penciled in for the Championship Round at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
But one more driver will get to race with them and who that driver is, is a big question mark. All the teams have their own ebb and flow, so who is hitting their stride and peaking at the right time to advance? Here are the favorites.
Brad Keselowski – Although he has complained about lack of speed compared to Toyota, the No. 2 Ford has managed to run top-ten consistently. Keselowski is already locked into the Round of 12 based on points, with two wins earlier in the year giving him those precious bonus points.
Jimmie Johnson – Repeating his story from last year, Johnson’s team seems behind but a switch gets thrown and here comes the defending seven-time champion. Never count him out, even in the last race starting last with the fourth best car.
Kevin Harvick – As another solid performer with playoff experience, Harvick is a champion and always in contention. As he becomes more accustomed to Ford and with three other teammates to lean on for information, he could make another run at the Cup title.
Denny Hamlin – He turned the corner heading into the playoffs but stumbled just a bit during the first round. With all Toyota teams now seemingly firing on eight cylinders and some favorable tracks coming up, Hamlin could be a contender down the stretch.
There are also a few surprise wild cards that could be in play.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – With Talladega coming up next, he could pick up a surprising third win on the season and lock his team into the Round of 8. But Stenhouse will need to improve his overall performance to advance into the Final Four. The cream will rise to the top.
Chase Elliott – With yet another solid playoff, Elliott has two runner-up finishes in the first Round of 16 and everyone is waiting for that break out win to come. Once that happens, who knows how quickly or how many will follow. Elliott is capable of advancing on points, especially if he starts to pick up some Stage wins.
Matt Kenseth – Another former champion, Kenseth is always lurking and running consistently in the top-ten, especially with Toyota at the top of their game. He is looking for a ride next year and that might be the edge he needs to drive him toward picking up a win yet this season. Or in typical Kenseth fashion, even points race his way into the next round.
A safe gambler would put their money on the No. 48 of Jimmie Johnson as the ‘Number four seed of the Final Four.’ But with two of the favored three driving Toyotas, don’t look past Denny Hamlin or Matt Kenseth, who may well slide in under the radar.
The race at Homestead-Miami Speedway is building up as a knock-down, drag-out dogfight and my personal belief is that Kyle Larson just might come out as the alpha male and the first NASCAR Cup Champion under the Monster Energy Banner.